Defections alter projections in Niger

In some quarters, it is known as ‘The Power State’ because large chunk of Nigeria’s electricity comes from Niger State but to some, the slogan is simply because the state produced some military generals whose footprints cannot be erased from discussions of Nigeria’s political transition. Most of those that wanted to grab the PDP presidential ticket, including Atiku Abubakar, ahead of the party’s primaries had visited Niger for ‘blessing,’ even though President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC did not. Both candidates, who would be facing the Nigerian electorate tomorrow, would like to have Niger in their kitty.

As the D-day approaches, some analysts say the odds continue to pile against the PDP in Niger State in terms of its chances for the presidential and other elections.

With its key stalwarts leaving its fold for the ruling APC at the state level and at the centre, tomorrow’s presidential and National Assembly elections might change the calculations of many.

Just last month, four of PDP’s governorship aspirants in the last primaries of the party and a former chairman defected to APC.

Among the defectors was Nigeria’s former Ambassador to South Africa, Ahmed Ibeto. Analysts say the defection of those stakeholders with serious support base in their various zones was the last knell for the PDP ahead of the general elections.

Since the move by the four former aspirants, more PDP stalwarts, including the party’s treasurer and a former member of the state House of Assembly, have moved their tents to the ruling APC.

The situation seems to have created further lull in the activities of the party ahead of the elections in the state. Unlike the ruling party which has coordinated campaign plans and has been able to tour virtually all the three senatorial districts in the state, the PDP has been able to only organise rallies in zonal headquarters.

In the interim, the PDP also embarked on door-to-door campaign initiative in few areas. Even at that, the campaign has been devoid of the verve that had become synonymous with the party in the state and across the country over the years.

Analysts have blamed the seeming lacklustre activities of the PDP on dearth of much-needed fund to prosecute the campaign.

“In a highly monetized election like ours, a person aspiring to displace an incumbent governor or deliver presidential and National Assembly candidates of the ruling party must have loads of cash to throw around, but the situation is not the case with the PDP in the state,” Abdullahi Usman, an analyst observed.

Beyond the fund to drive the campaign, some observers say the absence of a rallying figure whose influence cut across all the geopolitical zones of the state is affecting the party’s chances.

“In past elections, there were zonal and state leaders of influence on whose popularity the party rode to power,” Usman contended.

“For instance, the late former Governor Abdulkadir Kure played the role of rallying point man, but his death has greatly affected the PDP’s fortune in the state,” Usman said.

According to him, former Governor Muazu Babangida Aliyu found it difficult to take late Kure’s place especially that there was seeming bad blood between the two which had polarized the party into camps long before the death of Kure.

Analysts say the party’s apparent weakened state would certainly rub off on its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, in tomorrow’s election. This is more so as political parties, including PDP and APC, rely on state structures to prosecute their presidential campaigns.

In Atiku’s case, he seems to be relying very much on the state chapter and ignored to put in place alternative structures that he could use when the chips are down.

Analysts also fault his choice of campaign coordinator in the state, Shem Zgbayi Nuhu, a former deputy to Kure, who they claimed was neither a good mobiliser nor did he have the much-needed influence to rally support for him.

However, despite the glaring disadvantage, the party’s state vice chairman Zone ‘C’, Yahaya Abdullahi Ability, insists that Atiku would have an upper hand against President Buhari in the coming contest. He hinged his postulation on the alleged inability of Buhari to fulfil his campaign promises to the people, adding that many have lost confidence in the APC-led administration at the centre due to rising insecurity, joblessness and the alleged insincerity in the fight against corruption.

“Buhari made three key promises of fighting corruption, ending insecurity and improving the economy but nothing significant has happened since he assumed office,” he said.

“Rather, Boko Haram activities have increased, likewise kidnapping, armed robbery and banditry,” he said.

He said the economy is also in shambles, while the fight against corruption allegedly  only targeted people in the opposition political parties and above all, infrastructures were still comatose across the country.

“So, there is no doubt that the president has failed and that is why the people are clamouring for Atiku Abubakar,” the PDP chieftain claimed.

But the State Coordinator of One2tell10BSG, one of the many groups working for the re-election of Buhari for a second term, Abdullahi D. Yahaya, argued in the contrary.

He said President Buhari had done, in just four years, what PDP could not do in the 16 years it presided over the affairs of the country. According to him, Buhari would surpass his 2015 records when he polled 80.83 per cent of the total votes in Niger State by netting a total 657,678 votes against 149, 987 votes.

“For the 2019 general elections, we expect more margin compared to 2015 general elections,” he said.

“General Muhammad Buhari has performed excellently not only on infrastructure but in all sectors. In 2015 election, we didn’t have any project to campaign with; but now we have projects in all 36 states and those are enough to see us through,” he said.

According to him, Atiku’s campaign structure in the state is too weak to make any inroad in the state. “Moreover, Atiku and his team carry serious baggage which is working against him,” he said.

Also, a political analyst, Malam Suleiman Farinwata, argued that the poll is likely to tilt towards President Buhari because he has a cult following in the state.

He said the number of projects embarked upon by Buhari in the state such as the recent commissioning of Baro Inland Port, works on the Minna/Suleja road and Bida/Agaie/Lambata road contracts and others, further endeared the president to the people of the state.

He also points to the fact that the state always goes along with the ruling party as another key index that will work in favour of the president’s re-election bid.

Added to these, according to the analyst, is the absence of opposition figure within the PDP that would deploy resources for its campaign, noting that the few that could enhance the party’s chances are facing corruption charges.