A new analysis of the effects of COVID-19 lockdown policies for Nigeria shows that it is likely that such policies would do more harm than good.
The first social cost-benefit analysis of Corona policies for Nigeria was published by the award-winning think tank Copenhagen Consensus Center together with researchers from Nigeria’s National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS).
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According to the study, moderate social distancing will overall reduce deaths by 12,000, saving 102,000 people from dying from COVID-19, another 17,500 from better HIV treatment and fewer traffic deaths, but also causing an excess 107,000 deaths from malaria, TB and child malnutrition because of less health outreach, movement restrictions and economic disruption.
It also estimated that the social cost of closing schools for Nigeria could be around $5.7 billion – the present value of income loss for more than 25 million children over the next 50 years.
Recall that the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Boss Mustapha, had warned that if Nigeria loses the sense of the moment, it may be confronted with another pandemic and the nation will find itself starting all over again.
The National Coordinator Presidential Task Force on the COVID-19, Sani Aliyu echoed the same sentiments has warned of another wave of the virus in Nigeria.
Aliyu said allowing the second wave of COVID-19 in Nigeria could destroy the country’s economy and lead to more deaths.
The new study which calculates the costs and benefits of moderate social distancing policies and school closures for Nigeria, noted that the costs of even moderate social distancing policies vastly outweigh the benefits, with more life years lost from other causes than COVID-19.
The study further revealed that deaths avoided from COVID-19 are likely to be of older people, whereas deaths from the remaining causes are likely to be of younger people.
The study puts the total economic loss for Nigeria from moderate social distancing at $373.5 billion, almost equivalent to an entire year of GDP.
It noted that Closing schools for 9 months would mean that each child receives 9 months less education which will ranslate to each child less productive in their adult years.
According to the study: “Nigeria should continue a series of sensible low-cost social distancing measures like cocooning of elderly, no large gatherings and handwashing. It should keep health services for tuberculosis, malaria and vaccinations running.
“It should provide masks for health personnel. But according to this analysis, Nigeria should not shut down its schools or its economy to tackle corona, because the harms will vastly outweigh the benefits.
President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, explains why we should be wary of the argument to save lives at any cost: “Many would say, we should save all lives no matter the cost. But in Nigeria, more than 150,000 people die from tuberculosis each year, almost all of whom could have been saved at surprisingly low cost.
“Research shows that we could save about 127,000 people from dying from TB every year for about $400 million. For the amount Nigeria would spend on saving one life through corona policies, it can save almost 10,000 lives through smart TB policies.”
