COP28 UAE: Takeaways for Africa

This year’s COP28 (Conference of the Parties) held at the Expo city in Dubai, UAE concluded in the early hours of December 13, 2023 after last minute shuttle diplomacy centred around contentious texts on fossil fuels in the outcome of the Global Stocktake (GST) among the parties. The COP28 event had in attendance over 100,000 registered attendees, the largest ever of any COP.

In his opening remarks, the executive secretary of UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), Mr. Simon Stiell emphasised that “the world is way off-track in achieving climate goals and in the absence of ambitious action, we are heading towards a temperature increase of three degrees by the end of this century”.

For the first time in 28 years of UN climate summits, a key milestone of “transitioning away from fossil fuels” was agreed by all parties to the conference however, not without dissenting voices expressing dismay at the agreement’s loopholes that gave room for continued unabated burning of fossil fuels thereby further delaying radical efforts to cut emissions.

The Africa Group of Negotiators (AGN) headed by Mwelpha Shitima of Zambia highlighted the continent’s mitigation and adaptation pathways in line with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and further stressing that “Adaptation is a matter of survival for us in Africa”.

Loss and damage

At the 2009 climate summit (COP15) in Copenhagen, Denmark, a group of rich nations pledged an annual funding of $100 billion to poor and vulnerable nations to pay for disaster recovery to vulnerable nations prone to climate-induced catastrophes. The actualisation of these commitments had seemingly failed to take effect in the face of worsening climate disasters across the globe.

The COP28 summit concluded day one of deliberations with a surprising and unprecedented agreement by 198 nations for the operationalisation of the loss and damage fund and funding arrangement towards financing of climate-induced catastrophes for poor and vulnerable nations. The loss and damage funding agreement sparked an enthusiastic head start to the COP28 summit.

The host, UAE pledged a $100 million contribution with Germany, Japan, United states and the UK also announcing contributions to the fund. At least $700 million loss and damage funding were pledged in a landmark step towards climate justice for Africa, the global south and small island nations.

However, the institutionalisation of the fund at the World Bank and the four years framework mechanism of the financing and disbursement criteria presents yet an uncertain scenario for ease of the funds access for the vulnerable nations already struggling to cope with the climate crisis.

Africa is prone to sea level rise from melting ice due to warming temperatures and floods as consequence of unprecedented heavy rains (for example, the 2023 El-Nino in East Africa and Cyclone Freddy in Southern Africa) which scientists attributed their intensification to climate change.

Africa lacks effective early warning systems resulting in heavy losses when disasters strike. The UN’s Green Climate Fund (GCF) had pledged to deploy Early Warning Systems to as many as 60 countries by 2027 to save lives and investments according to GCF’s executive director, Mafalda Duarte. Speaking at the summit, Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu lamented that “neither Nigeria nor any country in Africa have been among the major initiators of climate change. However, we stand among its front-line victims”.

Energy transition

Africa is disproportionately disadvantaged in terms of the global renewable energy investments aimed at transitioning from fossil fuel energy systems in tune with global efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed temperature rise of 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels. According IEA, “the world needs to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 or add at least 11,000GW and double the average rate of energy efficiency enhancements from 2% to 4% every year until 2030”.

Over 123 nations including several African countries (e.g. Angola, Benin, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Mali, Nigeria, Tunisia, Zambia) had signed off to pursue the clean and efficient energy transformation. Amid Africa’s vastly untapped renewable energy potential, the President of Kenya, William Ruto announced an African investment of $2.6 billion for clean power projects in the continent. Similarly, on the sidelines of the summit, the Africa Energy Transition Partnerships (AETP) was launched between United Nations Office for Project Services and Sustainable Energy for ALL.

A collaborative plan of action to pull resources to bolster the just energy transition towards increase energy access for the over 40% of Africans leaving without access to electricity and the 70% without access to clean energy fuels.

Emissions reduction

Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels accounts for two-thirds (70%) of historical greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve net-zero emissions goal on or before 2050 as contained in the 2015 Paris agreement, greenhouse gas emissions must reduce by 40-45% from 2005 levels by 2030. While several African countries economies rely heavily on fossil fuels as the mainstay revenue and energy source (e.g. oil to Nigeria, Tunisia, Angola and coal to South Africa) respectively.

The continued unabated extraction of fossil fuels jeopardises the goal of the Paris agreement and an obstacle for net-zero emissions goal. To gradually transition away from fossil fuels and going by historical polluters like the US, China, UK, Saudi Arabia and Norway, it’s most fair to have differentiation and resourcing for the energy transition pathways especially as it affects Africa.

For example, “Congo and Canada must not phase out fossil fuels at the same rate” according to Mohamed Adow, director of Powershift Africa. Recently, Nigeria in partnership with Germany signed deals on renewable energy investments and gas flaring reduction through natural gas conversion technologies for export to the latter. To facilitate cuts in global methane emissions, the UN launched a global satellite-based tracking system for methane emissions. The Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) which already identified about 1,500 methane plumes in its first year of operation help pinpoint sources of the potent gas emissions. About 120 oil and gas companies representing 40% of global oil production had made credible commitments to tackle methane emissions.

The Africa Heads of State and representatives at the summit put forward Africa’s just and equitable energy transition priorities, loss and damage demands, technology support, emissions reduction and carbon market initiatives aimed at addressing the continent’s climate change mitigation, adaptation and economic transformation for a sustainable future where Africans were not left behind.

Isa can be reached via [email protected]