Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) Report of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the last quarter 2019 show consumers anticipate inflation will further rise in 2020 from its current 11.85 percent.
The CES fourth quarter 2019 report conducted by the Statistics Department of the CBN was posted on the website of the bank yesterday.
The highlights of the Q4 2019 Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) shows that consumers anticipate “the naira to remain unchanged, inflation rate to rise, and borrowing rate to fall in the next 12 months.”
The report on the major drivers of the expected upward movement in prices are food & other household needs, savings, purchase of appliances/consumer durables, education and purchase of houses, and purchase of car/motor vehicle.
The report however noted that the overall outlook was positive in the current quarter, as consumers were optimistic in their outlook. Consumers also had a positive outlook for the first quarter 2020 and the next 12 months.
The report suggested that majority of consumers believe that the next 12 months would not be an ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like motor vehicles and house & lot.
“Overall buying intention index in the next twelve months stood at 36.5 index points, indicating that most consumers do not intend to buy big ticket items in the next 12 months. The buying intention indices for consumer durables, motor vehicles and house & lot were below 50 points, indicating that respondents have no plans to make these purchases in the next twelve months” it explained.
On unemployment rate, the report indicated that “the unemployment index for the next 12 months remained positive at 21.0 points in Q4 2019, indicating that consumers generally expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next one year.”
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