In all of Nigeria’s election history, ‘bandwagon effect’ has always played out in any elections of a given season.
This time around – as the nation goes back to governorship and assembly polls next Saturday, March 11, the possibility of a ‘bandwagon effect’ remains purely in the realm of speculation. In fact, it may not be business as usual.
The presidential poll is already done and dusted for now, though leaving in its trail mass ‘hailings’ and ‘wailings’ of unique kinds, depending on the side you pitched your tent. Fact is: A president-elect emerged in Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and that remains the reality until the presidential election tribunal is convinced by the petitioners to adjudicate otherwise.
The next phase of gubernatorial/assembly polls has again thrown up some uncertainties. Ordinarily, it ought not to be but a roller-coaster game for the APC that wrested the presidency. But will this be?
All four leading political parties, namely the APC, LP, PDP & NNPP entered the last presidential poll with so much anxiety and uncertainty as to their chances. They seemed equally matched judging by all the variables on ground despite the pretence of their non-existence.
After INEC had announced the presidential election result, it became very clear that the battle was very closely fought, especially by the first three political parties.
For all the various political parties, their peculiar areas of strength and weaknesses came to the fore while the umpire – INEC, literally found itself in the middle of a boiling cauldron, managing to exit same with scathing bruises and even by the whiskers. In fact, a replay of the ‘Orubebe Syndrome’ came out in a lesser version.
As things stand now ahead of Saturday’s polls, voter apathy is very unlikely and probably a non-issue as the various parties are surprisingly still on full throttle, seeking to consolidate gains or redress perceived wrongs in the last presidential poll.
No party seems to be shifting ground on the basis of any ‘alliances’ save for the much lesser political parties whose performances were rather dismal, insignificant and irrelevant at the end of the day.
Appreciable voter turnout remains very predictable as the major parties will strive to hold their own in executive & legislative capacities in the next political dispensations; in fact, as forces to be reckoned with.
For the electorate, there seems to be an unrelenting urge to stamp their impact again and better make their votes count. No one appears intimidated by the uncanny scenes, actions, tendencies and the outcomes of the last presidential poll.
A greater possibility, however, is that the political parties’ image would better play more advantage than the personality of candidates fielded. That is not to suggest that the personal image and integrity of the candidates will not play a crucial factor.
For INEC, sure, it will be on the spot again as many will closely mark its officials and leave no room for its perceived lapses of Feb. 25. How INEC will redeem itself in the next election management in terms of prompt and adequate material delivery, voting procedure and results collation from the polling unit up to the state levels is a matter for conjecture.
Suffice it to say, nonetheless, that INEC’s procedural format and the disposition of the political parties and their candidates to play the game according to the established rules are fundamental to the durability of the fledging 4th Republic.
We can only wish for ‘Pax Nigeriana’!
Celsus Ohain is a journalist, historian and diplomat
