Barring any seismic eventuality, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump should contest the American Presidential election in November on the platforms of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party respectively. The contest will thus be a re-match and a sequel to that of 2020.
Already, the two have cemented their positions as standard bearers with the recent Michigan primaries. Super Tuesday, at which outstanding delegates will vote en masse next month, is a mere formality and a coronation.
With Biden at 81 and Trump at 77 years, it means America has become gerontocratic and a political firmament for the old. It is reminiscent of the defunct Soviet Union in which old age defined the political arena. At a time when other countries are rooting for younger and more energetic leaders, it is concerning that the flag bearers of America’s two leading parties are dotards.
A recent Polling by the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, found that 53% of 1,064 respondents surveyed, including 29% of Republicans, said it would be better if Trump did not run in 2024. By the same token, 57% of respondents and 37% of Democrats would prefer if Biden did not seek re-election.
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Even more concerning is the tendency for the two to suffer amnesia or meltdowns. On more than one occasion, Trump, who is facing ninety one felony counts, has gone into paroxysms of meltdowns and diatribes. He recently called Melania, his wife of eighteen years, Mercedes. Biden who had suffered acute stuttering in his youth, and which is reported to explain his gaffes, referred to Emmanuel Macron as Francois Mitterrand, a former President of France.
Both candidates boast of rock-solid constituencies. Biden is enamoured of by the middle class, minorities and suburban women while Trump commands a cult-like following among evangelicals and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) fanatics. Even though the two command near rock-star support in certain constituencies, the MAGA fanatics and Trump’s divisive politics keeps independents and apathetics at bay.
If independents view Trump with a tinge of miasma, some of Biden’s ardent and traditional supporters such as Hispanics, African Americans and Arab Americans are having reservations. In the Michigan primary, not less than 15% of the delegates of the Democratic Party voted uncommitted. Michigan State has a large Arab American population. And their voting uncommitted was to register their outrage at Biden’s skewed Israel-Gaza war policy.
Most Americans are unenthused about a Biden-Trump rematch on account of its monotonous prospect. However, a slew of polls recently conducted shows that in the event of a rematch, Trump has an upper hand over Biden who won in 2020 by a mere 4.5 percentage points.
Trump has assiduously latched onto an Al Capone strategy. The more his court trials come up, the more he frames his travails as “witch-hunt” and “persecution”. And the more his casting himself in the mould of victim resonates with his MAGA base and earns him sympathy and popularity.
Though the “persecution” strategy may work in the interim, it may prove his undoing in the long run. Already, 51% of Americans say they will not vote for Trump if he is convicted. Congressman, Eric Swalwell, underscored this succinctly in an interview on MSNBC’s THE KATIE PHANG SHOW: “I’ll take the individual who’s 81 over the guy who has 91 felony counts”. It is hard to see how a conviction will not happen given the legion of cases Trump faces. Already, he has been convicted by a NewYork court over the inflation of the value of his assets. This explodes the myth of a successful billionaire which he has cultivated of himself, projected and sold to Americans. It was on these premises that he was voted in 2016.
As a matter of fact, it is the prospect of Trump’s conviction that is spurring Nikki Haley on in the primaries despite losing her State, South Carolina, and despite the withdrawal of such sumptuous donors like the Kock Brothers from her campaign. Haley has vowed to carry on until Super Tuesday. Haley who views herself as an alternative to Trump has also called attention to his frailties and in a scathing manner.
Even if Trump were convicted and ends up in jail, a prospect which he dreads and is alleged to inform his frequent meltdowns, Biden continues to suffer poor approval ratings by Americans. As at Wednesday, 28th February, Biden’s approval rating stood at a dismal 37%. Nine out of ten Democrats approved of his performance and the same number of Republicans disapproved. Independents were slightly skewed toward disapproval.
In spite of his marshaling resources and the country to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, taming inflation, creating more jobs than any modern American President, his popularity continues to take a nosedive. His campaign too is yet to gain traction. The upshot is that speculations are rife that America may yet witness another LBJ Moment: A moment when Lyndon Baines Johnson, confronted with the Vietnam debacle, unrests in the streets and a plunge in the polls, decided not to seek a second term. It is thought that at the last moment, Biden may step down and a younger and more popular Michelle Obama may be parachuted to take over. The polls and the pundits favour her.
Apart from a dwindling popularity rating, Professor Cornel West is contesting as an Independent. It is widely speculated that the activist’s candidature will whittle at Biden’s base and give Trump an edge.
Although the polls, as at now, favor a Trump upset, we must reckon with the power of incumbency and the dynamic nature of politics. “A week is a long time in politics”, Harold Wilson, the British statesman, once said. We have eight months before the American Presidential election. We have a long, long time!
Nick Dazang is a former Director at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
