Before the 2019 General Elections

The political campaigns in Nigeria are at a stage when the level of activity is at its highest. The contestants for the office of the President of Nigeria are quite many, even though we can argue that the two most important contestants are President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Buhari, as the defending champion and current holder of the title is trying his best to retain the championship by winning the game all over again. Therefore, he is out there trying to defend, protect, support, and guard his title. On the other hand, Atiku, as the main opponent, has the advantage of being able to say, that: “Look, I have never been president; Nigeria is in dire straits, so why not give me a try?” For the other contestants, including Omoyele Sowore, Obiageli Ezekwesili, Kingsley Moghalu and Fela Durotoye, their resolve to run for office will at least remind us, Nigerians, that whenever we are tired of electing into office people in the category of Buhari and Atiku, who have been around in our polity for a while now; that there are other viable options to consider.

But before the elections are held and concluded in February 2019, it is important for Nigerians to remember that the people with the highest stakes in the outcome of the elections (whichever way it goes) are the commoners. Here is what will happen after the presidential elections are concluded in mid-February. If Buhari wins the election, he will simply retain power. When he is done with power, he will then return to retirement in comfort. If Atiku wins the election, he will take a break from his multi-billion naira business to the presidency. When he is done as president, he will fall back to retirement and his business. Now, Nigerians should ask themselves where they are now, and where are they returning to, when it is all said and done? It is pertinent for them to answer these questions with an honest mind in order that they can demand for excellent leadership from the people who want to lead them. If they cannot answer these questions honestly, then the joke may be on them, irrespective of Atiku or Buhari as president.

Before we go into the elections, it is also important to note that we are likely to have the most fiercely fought electoral battle post-1999. There are people who claim that the elections will be a walkover for Buhari. I doubt if this will be the case. First, Buhari came to power because of a coalition of several political interests. The coalition is not intact today as there has been some disaggregation here and there. Second, while there is the net incumbency effect that could work in support of a Buhari victory, there are other factors that may affect the easy predictability of the election outcome. Some of these effects may include the new voter effect, the core supporter apathy effect, etc. Third, and in fact, there are reasons to believe the recent statements of the Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki, that the numbers are not there to explain an easy victory for Buhari next month. Going by the numbers, one can claim that Buhari is not as popular as the numbers argue.

Remember that Buhari ran for president three consecutive times and lost in all three attempts. The vote difference from each of these winners, when Buhari lost, were very significant. When it was time for Buhari to win the elections after his fourth attempt, he did so with less than three million votes. In other words, in all the elections in which Buhari was defeated, the victors won by some very significant figures, while in the one contest in which Buhari won, he did so by not very significant votes, relatively. In fact, in the contest between Buhari and late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, not only did Yar’Adua defeat Buhari in their home state of Katsina, he even defeated Buhari in Daura; the latter’s birthplace. While we all know that those elections, especially the one which brought Yar’Adua to power was largely agreed as marred by credibility issues, nonetheless, when something is described as not credible, it does not mean it is entirely faulty. It only means that there is a level to which we can lend our trust on it. But even when we believe that the figures from those elections were not credible enough, in the absence of other figures, we can only rely on the ones we have to make predictions. Because of these in mind, and other factors (e.g. the results of the bye elections held within Buhari’s tenure, and some internal crisis within the ruling APC especially in the northwest as Buhari’s stronghold, etc.), it is difficult to agree that elections will be a walkover for Buhari.

However, whoever wins the elections, it is important for government to particularly focus on the economy as much as focus is given to the security of lives and property. Government must device means in which economic crisis can be avoided in the country. As it stands, our economy is weak and shrinking in size. The banking system is not far from crisis. The foreign reserves are majorly liability-financed. The national debt is escalating while the capital expenditure is nosediving to its lowest levels. There are shortfalls in revenue, while import levels are falling. In three years, import levels have fallen by 75 percent because liability has financed foreign reserves rather than being used to cover the imports or finance the capital expenditure. Unfortunately for Nigeria, at no other time will we require massive external finance, since the domestic sector lacks the capacity to pull up the boat stuck up at the bottom. Interestingly, our economic policies or lack of them, at the moment, will not attract the support of the world. Yet, as if they are not important, some of these issues are not even at the forefront of the political campaigns going on in the country. We need to really get it right on the economy, if not for us, let it be for the future generation.