As direct primaries beckon

Historians have long debated how epochal changes in society occur. Some think that social change happens mainly through ‘big bang’ events such as wars, revolutions or pandemics. Others believe society changes largely through the accumulation of small bits of changes in various sectors that then reaches a tipping point. In Nigeria, it is difficult to know how change can occur.

We have had a fair few of big bangs since 1960. The change from colonial to self-government is one. The 1966 coups, which some people like to call a ‘revolution’ was another. The civil war which followed that coup could be categorised as yet another. The return to democracy after three decades of military rule was also a big bang moment for Nigeria. In other words, there is as yet no indication that a big bang here will necessarily change the nature and substance of governance.

So perhaps we might focus on the small changes. Quite a few of these have also happened in recent years. Our first ever democratic transition from a ruling party to the opposition in 2015 surely counts as a significant change in this sense. So too is former president Jonathan’s concession of defeat. That concession will make it difficult for any future incumbent president to hang on to power by all means when it is clear they have lost the election.

Professor Attahiru Jega’s reforms in INEC between 2011 and 2015, now being consolidated by Professor Mahmud Yakubu are another. The cynicism in our electorate has prevented people from waking up to the reality, but the blatant rigging of presidential elections of the past is now in the past. Indeed, even the most recent amendments in the Electoral Act, once assented to by President Buhari would count as among the small changes that move society forward.

INEC will transmit results of the elections electronically, and therefore free from interference, if it wants. But perhaps the most important small change in the amendments to the electoral act is the provision that all political parties in Nigeria must now conduct direct primaries for all elective positions. Clause 87(1) of the amendment bill states that “a political party seeking to nominate candidates for elections under this Bill shall hold direct primaries for aspirants to all elective positions, which shall be monitored by the Commission”.

It is difficult to fully emphasise the significance of this new provision in our electoral laws, if the president eventually assents to it. But to put it mildly, it has the potential to change everything in our elections going forward, and hopefully our democracy and governance more broadly. First, it means that going forward INEC now has the power to actively monitor internal democracy within the political parties, unlike now where how a candidate emerges within a political party is merely the business of that party, and thus giving room for godfathers and mothers of all hue room to manipulate the entire internal party democratic process.

Second, direct primaries mean a true contest of popularity, and therefore of ideas and campaigns. This means that voters will begin to matter in how candidates emerge for all elective positions within a party. Candidates must now interact directly with party members while campaigning for votes, instead of the usual delegates whose votes are mostly up for grab by the highest bidder. As Senator Kabiru Gaya of Kano State, who is the Chairman Senate Committee of INEC, and therefore responsible for drafting and seeing these amendments through, said last week, it will be impossible for a candidate for senate in any party to buy up the votes of all party members in a primary election.

That point is significant in itself, but it goes beyond just that. Direct primaries, on a permanent basis, mean that more voters will be attracted to party memberships of political parties. Presently, political party membership, particularly at the states and local government levels, largely comprise a tiny proportion of the populace for whom membership of a party is just a means for handouts from party godfathers. Direct primaries will change this. A greater percentage of voters will now be inclined to become members of a political party, and through that influence party processes leading to changes in candidates, policies and campaign strategies.

Moreover, direct primaries could mean the retirement of party godfathers who manipulate the delegates in the present system. If you wanted to become the governor of Kano State for example, you could mobilise a whole bunch of new voters into any of the existing parties, and all things being equal, can win the party ticket without having to defer to the current party bosses. This applies not just to large states like Kano and Lagos, but to all states.

And then, there is the relationship between governors and the legislators in the state. Governors tend to be the most powerful politicians in each state in Nigeria, and not because of their popularity or capacity to lead. They are powerful because they control not only the state legislatures, the national legislators from the state, the local government chairmen and councillors, and of course, the local party machinery. Direct primaries will spell the end of this. A member of the state house of assembly, or of the national assembly, or even a chairman of the local government, will no longer depend on the goodwill of the governor to win their tickets or seats.

More broadly, direct primaries will mean more frequent elections and therefore more frequent engagements and interactions between the leaders and the lead. The average party member or voter will be voting at least 10 times for each election circle, twice each—primaries and main elections—for all the elective offices from councillor to president. This means, over time, increased voter education and awareness, increased opportunities for news slates of candidates cut of different cloth from the current group, and improved democratic processes overall.

Also, direct primaries have the potential to change the relationship between leaders and the led entirely. Currently, political leaders tend to think they are doing voters a favour, that their trickle-down politics and economics should be praised by all. Direct primaries can change this. Direct primaries can give real meaning to the idea that power belongs to the people. It means that politicians will learn to value their constituents, and policy, the most important means by which a politician can work for their constituents will become the order of politics.

Constituency offices could become real hubs for pitching legislative ideas or providing legitimate support to the voters, not places for begging for money for naming ceremonies and weddings that they currently are. In short, while we wait for the big bang revolution that many Nigerians often pray for, it is perhaps more useful to seize the opportunities by small but significant changes in the electoral system. If the president assents to the bill as proposed, Nigerian voters must also take things up from there.