As 2023 ticks in – A tight race beckons (II)

For now, I choose to support Tinubu against those I consider to be bullies, because I am interested in a keen contest between himself and Atiku, if it plays out that way.  If by any remote chance the powers that be in the two large parties zone to the South East, I will support Moghalu. 

I have expressed my concerns about the VP in recent times, and I am consistent in my position. The VP has been in this same failed Buhari government since inception, and even though we saw how active he could be when he acted as president (before Buhari’s people asked that he never again be handed over to, for whatever reason), the politics is not enough reason for some of his other actions and disposition. He could have found several opportunities to push real game-changing policies as head of the economic council and in spite of the frustrations, beyond distributing Tradermoni, an unaccounted disbursement to market women and such other people who will definitely not repay.  He concentrated instead on the ease-of-doing-business index that the World Bank itself says it is stepping down because it is unfit for purpose.  He didn’t display that he has a keen mind to emancipate the people. In fact, he recently presided over the National Economic Council meeting at which it was recommended to increase prices of petroleum gas to N302 from February. The VP has shown that he is an ultra-right capitalist, more interested in things like liberalisation, devaluation, privatisation, deregulation, self-regulated markets, and cryptocurrencies; indeed anything psychedelic. Just like President Babangida in his days and I believe that was the era in which Nigeria lost its innocence and has been going downhill ever after – Osinbajo is likely to give unfettered reign to the same people who use their might and cunning to prevent us from thinking for ourselves through their many advisors – SAP, Washington Consensus etc – some of which they later apologised for. This is not about sprite walks, good looks, or sheer eloquence. We cannot hope to keep repeating an approach while expecting different results. Nigeria should be able to develop approaches to her economics that will consider its peculiarities. 2023 should be our turning point.

I believe Tinubu can drive that approach. I have in the past responded to at least two of his writeups. He believes in economic sovereignty and kicked against the idea of dollarising the Nigerian economy by tying everything to the price of crude oil. I like that kind of thinking. At least it sets us on a particular trajectory. What I have heard in contrast from Osinbajo such as that the Central Bank should allow cryptocurrency trading (which is basically glorified sports betting), when other central banks have outlawed that volatile pseudo asset which has again bitten the dust today, or that the Naira should be fully floated, does not give me the confidence that he could drive the needed radical intellectual fortitude and firepower that can dig Nigeria’s economy out of the doldrums. But again, this is not a blanket support for Tinubu. I am going somewhere.

If Osinbajo wins the coming contest, he will get a good northern muslim Vice President – in the mould of El Rufai or Zulum, but may be pitched against an experienced Atiku (if the PDP was wise in my view). Atiku may pair again with Peter Obi, and even though eastern votes hardly swing the results nationally, Peter has quite a few admirers in the South West and may pull the entire East for Atiku. Osinbajo had the Redeemed Church factor, but this is predominant in the South West, where at least 40 per cent of inhabitants are Muslims who may not go with that ticket depending on how Tinubu is treated. Will Tinubu release his structures willingly? Or will those famed structures be easily neutralised by other players in the party?  If Tinubu wins, he has to contend with another hurdle – a Muslim/Muslim ticket. His handlers will have a lot of work on their hands and can only conjure the spirit of Abiola/Kingibe in 1993, while hoping that if they win, they will not be denied the opportunity to run the country as happened to Abiola. A keen contest will happen between Tinubu/Zulum or ElRufai and Atiku/Peter Obi for instance. For me, that is what I want to see; two experienced horses, whom I believe may be able to commit class suicide by doing the right thing for the vast poor people of this country, driving up productivity nationally and leveraging the mistakes of the past. Both have also been known to be good headhunters and with minds much quicker than Buhari’s. I am not seeking a job from either though. What I have seen is that really serving Nigeria is a thankless job. 

What happens to the other players?  The new entrants like Chuka Monye, Khadijat Okunnu, and my philosopher friend, Wole Adebayo (who I believe has a better strategy and a larger potential following than the rest), will learn, like we did in 2019, and perhaps try another day. Wole has apparently been working on this for a while. Not only does he sit on a respectable haul of liquidity, but he owns a TV and Radio Station that could help with his broadcasts and campaigns. He is also solidly on ground at the grassroots, plus he has experience as a lawyer who has handled many electoral cases. His connection is formidable, but getting a platform that can upturn PDP and APC is a major issue. Like many of us, he is not willing to become part of the sicknesses of those parties. But an unknown may happen that will torpedo the best plans of Atiku, Tinubu and other bigwigs and open the autobahn for any of the chaps that have dared to be at the stage. Who knows? Or, some of the gladiators could distinguish themselves so well in the campaign and upcoming debates, such that they are offered ministerial and other positions in what could be an inclusive, national government if we are lucky to get a president that is more open-minded and result-oriented than what we are saddled with today. Time shall tell.