As 2023 ticks in, a tight race beckons (I)

So, this is the way I see it.

Some presidential aspirants aiming for the year 2023 have made known their intentions. Chief among them is Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Kingsley Moghalu has been in the space for a while now – perhaps the most prominent from the class of 2019 young turks prepared to stay the course.  Senator Anyim Pius Anyim also has signified, alongside his Ebonyi kinsman, Governor Dave Umahi. Last week we saw a 43-year- old man, Chukwuka Monye stepping out with eloquence. There’s also a beautiful, determined lady named Khadija Okunnu-Lamidi, who has broken the monotony of male aspirants.  My friend, Dr. Favour Ayodele, has also been in the space for a bit, stubbornly getting better by the day, and deserving of mention here. A big masquerade, Barrister Adewole Adebayo, President of Kaftan TV made a resounding statement as he marked his 50th birthday in Ondo town on Saturday the January 8, 2022 in a grand carnival in which he also declared his intentions.  I was at that event, and so were many political juggernauts from all over the nation. I know Wole as a philosopher, and one of the most versatile Nigerians I’ve met.  These are determined folks. Still on the sidelines but definite to join, is Alhaji Atiku Abubakar – serial contestant – who is likely to fly the PDP flag. Vice President Osinbajo’s men have blazed the trail for him to follow, as he may also declare in some days to come.

The platforms are fewer this time – 18 political parties, and not all of them may decide to field candidates having been decimated – so we may not see as many aspirants as we did in 2019. But there will be excitement from other perspectives. The coast is clearer for an Atiku for example, and he may get quite a few votes out of pity for having tried so long. That is Nigeria for you. The PDP desires to return but the APC can ill-afford to let go of power for now, lest the Buhari administration be probed and exposed for all its detritus.

For sure, the troubles with Nigeria have escalated. Things have got a lot worse than they were in 2019 and this is not a statement born of cognitive bias. Our leadership crisis has worsened, with President Buhari admitting to his bodily weakness as a result of old age.. Hunger, inflation, exchange crisis and other things have become even more problematic, and some would say Nigeria lost paradise in the last few years.  Buhari cannot be forgiven for losing a golden opportunity for profound reform of the polity. We had reposed much hope in Buhari’s leadership to help straighten out at least our security and some of our corruption problems, but been given a bloody nose by those two malaises under the watch of the man who called himself Mr. Integrity, supported by a Pentecostal pastor and erudite professor. Some have therefore posited that 2023 will be a most consequential year for Nigeria’s politics because we seem to be tilting on a cliffhanger.

Whereas 2023 will certainly be crucial and present its own breathtaking uncertainties, I believe the worst may be over for Nigeria having seen that the wings of separatists have been momentarily clipped, and their follies, unpreparedness and some would say, cowardice, exposed. There is every hope that whichever president we have next should be less reclusive.  This is again not about cognitive dissonance – for human beings often think the past is better than the present even if it’s not. For instance, people have clamoured for Goodluck Jonathan government to return, and before him, Yar’Adua, and before that, Obasanjo, and so on. The Buhari government has been indeed and in truth, clumsy, and the taciturn nature of the president is all we needed for separatists to grow wings and almost topple the entire country. The taciturn-ness also helped fuel insecurity, and it was hard not to interpret Buhari’s refusal to speak as his lack of anything to say or inability to articulate himself. The work of leadership today is 95 per cent communication, so in not being a communicator, or in holding his people in disdain such as to speak with us barely four times in seven years, Buhari failed woefully in the leadership department, and all else went downhill from there.

How will 2023 pan out? Of all who have stepped out, Tinubu has been significant. And this has generated much hoopla in every media already. Many issues have been thrown up and it is evident that Tinubu is a consequential man because the country seems split already between anti and pro the man. Is he worthy to be a president? Is he too old and frail? Is he too corrupt? What qualities is he bringing to the table? What about Yemi Osinbajo? The latter question throws up its own intrigues. As I type, the Vice President has not spoken openly about running for president but there are many groups urging him on. Some are ready to take him to court if he dares not. The Special Adviser to the President on Political Affairs, Babafemi Ojudu, has been vociferous everywhere I turn – and I think needs to be reminded that if he is actually drawing salary in his role, he shouldn’t be using our time – yes taxpayers’ time – to do open politics for anyone but he may continue if he works for free. Tinubu’s opponents have again dug up his past and questioned every claim he ever made about himself.  Articles have been written about how Tinubu did not help or mentor any of the guys we thought he mentored in their political careers. In fact, we are told he only used them. This is the thing about politics. People look you right in the face and shock you. The goal is to get power, and we have seen that once power is obtained, people often reach out for rapprochement.