Analysts predict rise in inflation rate to 12%

Analysts at the Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) have predicted that headline inflation is likely to jump by 0.25 per cent to 12.10 per cent.

Nigeria’s prevailing inflation rate has been at 11.85 percent since November 2019, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The research-based company run by Bismarck Rewane revealed the prediction in its Economic Bulletin released recently.

The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the December inflation rate soon and if FDC’s prediction turns out accurate, it would be the fourth consecutive month that headline inflation has increased.

The last time this happened was in 2016 when the economy suffered a severe growth contraction leading to a recession.

“In recent times, the spike in the year-on-year headline inflation is largely due to money supply saturation, lower interest rates, increased seasonal demand and base year effects of the border closure,” FDC said.

The company’s report, based on its survey, showed that the month-on-month inflation is likely to decline to 0.97 per cent (12.25 per cent annualised).

“This means that Nigerians are probably bypassing the border closure,” FDC disclosed, adding that more disturbing is the fact that core inflation (inflation less seasonalities) is expected to increase again to 9.2 per cent.

“A consistent increase in price inflation could force a monetary policy U-turn on interest rates earlier than anticipated,” FDC projected.