Holders Senegal have emerged as the narrow favourites to lift the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) trophy this time around.
Using Opta’s artificial intelligence prediction model, they would become the fourth team to win consecutive AFCONs and the first since Egypt won three in a row between 2006 and 2010.
None of the past six defending champions have gone beyond the competition’s last 16.
To achieve a more well-rounded picture of who will win the delayed 2023 Afcon, the prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw or loss – by using betting market odds and Opta’s team rankings.
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The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model then considers opponent strength and the difficulty of their path to the final – using match outcome probabilities, the composition of the groups and potential knockout stage match-ups.
Senegal are the most likely winners according to the model, with a 12.8% chance, just ahead of hosts Ivory Coast (12.1%), who are attempting to win the trophy for a third time, after 1992 and 2015.
The last host nation to lift the trophy were Egypt in 2006 – with just two third-place finishes (Ghana in 2008 and Cameroon in 2021) the best result among the past nine countries to host or co-host the competition.
Morocco (11.1%) are given the third-best chance of winning by the predictor model. They are seeking their second Afcon title, having won it in 1976, but they have not gotten past the quarter-finals in their past seven AFCON appearances, since losing the 2004 final 2-1 to Tunisia.
Algeria (9.7%) are the fourth-most likely winners, with Egypt fifth (8.5%). For Algeria, the chances of victory are boosted potentially by an easier group than some of the other top contenders, giving them the highest probability of reaching the last 16 (91.5%).
Rounding off the top seven teams in Opta’s predictor model are three-time AFCON winners Nigeria (1980, 1994 and 2013) and five-time champions Cameroon (1984, 1988, 2000, 2002 and 2017). Nigeria have an 8.1% chance of lifting the trophy, Cameroon 7.5%.
Both countries are heavyweights of African football, and both have potent goalscorers. Victor Osimhen, the 2023 African Footballer of the Year, scored 10 goals in qualifying for Nigeria, at least five more than any other player. The Super Eagles scored 22 overall – seven more than any other side.
Vincent Aboubakar, Cameroon’s captain, will aim to repeat his feats at AFCON 2021, when he scored eight goals to win the Golden Boot. Only Zaire’s Ndaye Mulamba, with nine goals in 1974, has ever scored more at a Cup of Nations finals.
