2023 elections: Casting the crystal ball

This last quarter of the year has come with a number of serious and even dramatic events, which upon careful appraisal depict and define the social and political conditions of Nigerians.

These events  range from Edo and Ondo States governorship polls to the #EndSARS protest, and to the #Palliathieves’ wickedness. With the occurrence of each event, I hitherto evaluated the issues in the positive light of what to be expected come 2023 general elections’ ―mass political consciousness that would change the rules of the game. But on a second thought and deeper analysis, I now believe that to be nothing but wishful thinking, due to some reasons I will give here. I had wanted to write on the recent Edo State Governorship election, but I tarried until that of Ondo State was held, two weeks after. At the time I should have done that, the #EndSARS protest came as a strong wind that claimed more of my attention as it did that of my fellow Nigerians.

To begin with, the storm of political rivalry between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), at the governorship contests of the two states was a fierce battle that has everything to do with the 2023 general elections. That one being a small fraction of the giant storm to be expected in 2023, Nigerians should have mixed expectations of enthusiasm and fear. Enthusiasm for taking a step further into electoral advancement, as the INEC plans to go digital. However, there is still a cause for alarm as to how advanced the crooked politicians are going to be in their endless scheming to engage in electoral fraud and to rape democracy. There is also the fear of the ignorant voters who flout rules of elections by selling their votes and their future for peanuts.

To some people, especially those whom it favoured, the recent Edo State governorship election, at which the PDP clinched victory, came as a litmus test of the party’s preparation and readiness to retake power at the centre come 2023. They boastfully concluded that the outcome of that election was a pointer to the declining appeal of the APC to the people of Nigeria. But viewed from the contrary perspective ―against the backdrop of the short period of time within which Governor Obaseki turned the erstwhile APC state into now a PDP state, the reality is that the power of incumbency worked its usual magic on the poor electorate, the hungry fowls that peck where something lies on the ground. Before the Ondo election, there was only a slight margin of three states between the rivals, in favour of the APC. While the APC deployed everything they had to beat the strong rival, the PDP, in the race, the latter would stop at nothing to narrow the margin. Indeed it was an all-out political battle. As for pundits, they cast their crystal ball to read into what the 2023 general elections would most likely be, looking up to the Ondo polls to begin the reading.

But the Ondo State election beat many people’s (I may say those who overrated our journey through democracy) predictions. Hence, some propaganda has been neutralised. However, with reported incidents of vote-buying, intimidation, and even gun battles during the polls, the election could not be associated with credibility. The power of incumbency did it again. It sufficed to sum up the do-or-die desperation with which both the ruling and the opposition parties desired to win. And this may be the case in 2023. We should, therefore, be fearful of the politics of chicanery, violence and flouting the rules of free, fair and credible elections. In fact, a disgusting mockery of democracy is in the offing. Upon all the known usual electoral tragedies, now the aftermath of the #EndSARS protest has come and shown how ready tools the youths have become for wicked politicians to hire them as political thugs and agents of terror. What this means is discernible to all sane Nigerians.

A lot of #EndSARS theories have been postulated. There are arguments among those who believed (perhaps still do) that the protest was politically motivated, pointing accusing fingers at the main opposition party as the brain behind all of it, those who insinuated that an aggrieved section of the ruling APC triggered it, and those who demonised the Igbos for it. Whoever the devils were, Nigerians who are informed of the social and political realities in the country, know that even today the youth need not be moved to rise and demand a positive change in the way things are run in the country. With the tempo of the #EndSARS, the youths are in the euphoria of shaking the political moguls and emperors to their pants. Some theorists have posited that certain indicators have shown that the 2023 general elections may usher in a new pattern of the electoral processes across the country. Hence, the protest is going to have a direct bearing on the 2023 elections, and by extension, on our nascent democracy.

On November 1, I read in the Vanguard newspaper that the Governor of Delta State, Sen. Ifeanyi Okowa, expressed his goodwill towards the youths, and pledged to create a space for them to be part of his government. Again, this morning (November 3) I read over my breakfast yet another occasional claptrap from former Governor of Benue State who is now a serving senator, Sen. Gabriel Suswam, that he desires the youth to be the next governor of the state. However, being over-exuberant on this is stark foolishness, because when such political demagogues say the youth, they do not make mistake about what they mean―; of course their progenies and anointed godsons, with all the material sense in that. What definition of the youth are we going to agree upon to qualify candidates for political contests? Having our too expensive electoral system in mind, one cannot be sure of open space for the youths to freely have their day in the political arena inhabited by godfathers with money bags―who feel by right should decide who becomes what.

All the above observations are ipso facto issues of concern, which therefore beg for civil society groups to watch over how politicians use the instrument of violence and gimmickry to gain political power. Other ways used to render the electorate vulnerable to manipulation need to also be thoroughly checked, and robust enlightenment campaigns waged to safeguard the sanctity of credible elections. The question should not only be who wins elections but what means is used to win. Apart from the US visa ban on crooked politicians, domestic mechanisms need to be put in place. For instance, the 2007 Uwais Committee set up by late President Yar’Adua administration, which recommended, among others, steps that would deepen our democracy if taken, that any politicians found guilty of fomenting violence or any other form of electoral fraud be banned from contesting elections, should be revisited. Friends of democracy should advocate for that, and mount pressure on the National Assembly to make it happen. Though it may not be an easy push, it can be achieved since we are beginning to understand the efficacy of our mass agitations.

The electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), though it fairly deserves commendation, needs to do more to tackle a lot of issues that are undermining the smooth conduct of elections, some of which are the usual hitches in delivery of election materials, failure of card reading devices, and other logistical challenges. This must not be ignored.

Sa’id writes from Funtua and can be reached through [email protected]