The great unknowns on the road to 2023 (II)

On current considerations, Tinubu is arguably the most outstanding political figure in the country and the clear front runner to clinch the APC ticket and probably the presidency in 2023.

But not everybody in the APC and in the polity at large believes so.

A stalwart of APC who I spoke to was instantly indignant at my mention of Tinubu. “Tinubu? His presidential ambition is more for the purpose of fulfilling a personal acquisitive desire than for national service. Many of us in the party do not have high regards for him despite his status. He has turned Lagos into an acronym that stands for; Let Asiwaju Grab Our Share. He is extending the same tendencies to APC which will turn to Asiwaju Procurement Company once he takes total control. And if he becomes president, Nigeria will be Tinubu Plc.”

Although for now all indications point to the fact that Tinubu’s quest for the presidency in 2023 seems unstoppable, a lot of loose ends still need to be tied for him to realise this. As it is now, Tinubu can only be sure of the southwest, out of the six geopolitical regions in the country. How he closes this gap constitutes one of the greatest political puzzles on the run up to 2023.

The uncertain fate of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo

In the normal course of events, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo should by now be considered one of the frontrunners to succeed president Buhari in 2023. No doubt the vice president has shown both the competence and temperament to succeed his principal in this regard. But with Asiwaju Tinubu muscling in on both the ruling APC and the southwest region where they both come from and succeeding at it, the VP’s chances can only be described as dodgy. The vice president has little or no political structure to rival or surpass Tinubu’s. Indeed VP Osinbajo owes his political ascension from his appointment as Attorney-General of Lagos state when Tinubu was governor of the state up to his present position as Vice President to president Buhari, to Tinubu. Perhaps that explains why the VP has chosen to be prudent on his political ambitions deferring to his political benefactor Tinubu knowing how ruthlessly unforgiving he can be when his political protégés attempt to turn against him. But there are those who believe that the despite this the vice president is only playing poker on the expectation that should Tinubu’s presidential ambition go pear shaped as a result of political headwinds, he will emerge fortuitously to clinch the party’s presidential ticket in 2023, as he did in 2015 to become the VP to president Buhari.

Will the northwest-southwest political alliance hold firm on the way to 2023?

The northwest-southwest political alliance which resulted in the formation of the APC and in its winning the 2015 presidential elections was anchored largely on the merger of the political interests of Muhammadu Buhari in the northwest and that of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu in the southwest.

Having helped deliver president Buhari to power in the 2015 2019 elections, the southwest expects that the northwest and the north will return the favour in 2023.

This expectation of the southwest generates mixed feelings in the northwest and the north generally.

Najatu Muhammed, woman activist and long term political associate of president Buhari dismisses the idea offhand.  “I don’t support the idea and I believe majority of people in the north and Nigeria don’t either,” she said vehemently. “It does not help the cause of our democracy. It disenfranchises people. It is ironic that the people who have been shouting the most about the need to uphold the tenets of democracy are the ones championing this clearly undemocratic idea.’’

For Ibrahim Boyi, veteran political activist and grassroot mobilizer, the idea that the north owes the southwest any political favours to the southwest is inaccurate. The formation of the APC was more appropriately a merger between the political forces of Muhammadu Buhari and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu to advance their own political interests. Buhari was not representing nor did he have the mandate of the north going into that arrangement.  According to Boyi “any talk about Asiwaju Tinubu doing Buhari and the north a favour in that merger is inaccurate. If any favours were done it was Buhari that did it to Tinubu because by then the Asiwaju was on the verge of being rendered politically irrelevant by the PDP government of President Goodluck Jonathan.  The politically safest, strategic option for Tinubu as the 2015 elections drew nearer was to join with the stronger Buhari train so as to survive politically and fight another day.  And out of this arrangement which the southwest joined as junior partner, they have reaped more than they contributed, more even than the north which provided the overwhelming bulk of the votes in the 2015 and 2019 elections. In the run up to 2023 with the expected exit of president Buhari that arrangement should go with its principal and the north cannot be expected to be bound by it.’’

Whither the Southeast?

Watching the unfolding events in the polity as it pertains to 2023, the southeast does not appear to have a clear cut position on the issues. Although some are angling for the presidency to be conceded as compensation for perceived political marginalization of the area, yet others perhaps in exasperation are in favour of the southeast pursuing a course of self-determination which taken in context is a euphemism for secession from Nigeria.

The situation is not helped by the political choices they have made. Unlike the north and southwest both of which have and belong to a dominant political tendency, southeast political preferences and loyalties are spread through three political parties, APGA, PDP and APC. Added to this are organizations such as Ohaneze, MASSOB and IPOB all fiercely competing for the control of the tight southeast political space. This to a large extent contributes to the current lack of a clear cut position on what the area really wants in the run up to the 2023 elections. And until this gap is closed, the southeast will continue to come up short in its expectations per 2023.

All said and done it is really unfortunate that the issues in our politics are dominated not by the need to provide quality life to our people but by the personal interests of our leading political figures. For as long as this constitutes the stuff of our politics Nigeria will not be able to rise up to its promise as the great nation that it should be.