Not too big to fail

A lot of pushing back

is required from the

apparatchiks of the ruling

All Progressives Congress,

APC, if it must avoid the coming to

pass of the grim prophecy of one of

its own.

Senator Bukar Abba Ibrahim does

not appear to me like a flippant

person. A three time governor of Yobe

State and the senator representing

Yobe East Senatorial District, Abba

Ibrahim is a founding member of the

APC. Given his robust credentials, if

he speaks truth to power, he deserves

to be listened to. Last weekend he

had a reason to voice out his feelings

about the goings-on in his party and

in the nation at large.

And what he had to say, without

mincing words, were not particularly

good music to the ears. At a dinner

in Abuja to mark his 70th birth day,

Senator Abba Ibrahim did some

worthwhile introspection and came

up with a warning that unless the

party changed course, it was heading

for a disaster. He said that unlike

the 2015 when it was easy to get his

people to vote for the party and its

presidential candidate, this time the

APC would have to do more work to

convince the people of the North East

to consider voting for it.

“Without mincing words, as an

elder statesman, I must say that

my dreams and hopes have been

dashed. We have certainly not done

what I dreamed we would do and in

many ways we are no better than the

PDP that we sought to displace.” he

deadpanned.

But he was not done yet. “As

we move towards the elections,”

he declared, “I have to give a dire

warning to the APC. Things are no

longer the way they were in 2015

when we rode to power on a cloud

of euphoria believing that things will

change. Simply put, things have not

changed and many things are worse

and the people are bitter. We should

not assume that we can win even

with massive rigging.”

Senator Abba Ibrahim is the latest

voice of worry and caution. But will

they listen to him or, as it has become

the habit, the goons will go after

him with insults and assaults? Will

the social media nit-wits, some who

traffic in hate speech and fake news

spare him, they who cannot make

any reasonable distinction between

constructive criticism and an attack

on their principal or idol which

must draw out their irascible and

thoughtless bile?

Before Senator Abba Ibrahim,

other notable personalities had

voiced concern and called for urgent

action to avoid a day like this. Before

the gale of defections which followed

the formation of the reformed APC,

Senator Shehu Sani for instance had

pointed out that President Buhari’s

inability to check the excesses “of

those in the command structure of

the party”, had led the party astray.

Senator Dino Melaiye had

consistently drawn attention of the

presidency to the unwholesome

developments, especially in Kogi

State, developments that would

almost inevitably create a set-back

for the party and the fortunes of the

president in the 2019 election, but

because it was Dino, he was laughed

to scorn.

The APC, in my view, like its

predecessor in office, the Peoples

Democratic Party, PDP, must not lay

back and think for a moment that

it is too big to fail. By no means,

it is not. But self-assuredness and

overconfidence, like security which

is “mortals chiefest enemy” can

lead to all sorts of unpredictable

consequences.

The change in the air is obvious;

but it’s one for the worse. Today,

there is a feeling of disappointment.

In many local government areas that

I am familiar with in Kogi State, for

instance, a coalition of disaffected

PDP members under no discernible

leadership to negotiate their

defection into APC threw their weight

and the numerical strength of their

supporters behind Buhari and other

APC candidates in 2015 perceiving

them to be agents of change. Their

yeoman efforts translated into

massive victory for APC at all levels.

But today, four years later, they

have nothing to show for it. Nothing

from the federal government and

nothing from the state government.

That is the essence of Senator Abba

Ibrahim’s dire warning. Unless the

current efforts of its candidate,

President Muhammadu Buhari pays

off, the APC as a party is obviously

headed for a major disappointment.

And, to put it mildly, it’s an awful

wrong time for a party that is

desperate to retain power to present

the ugly picture of a divided house.

The primaries to elect the party’s

flag bearers for 2019 elections

have thrown up an army of angry

and aggrieved party men and

women. Some of these implacably

disenchanted members are strong

and powerful enough to rock the boat

and, if the push comes to a shove, to

pull down the house entirely.

To prevent that from happening,

President Buhari has switched to

a fire-fighting mode. But he is in a

fix too. He will have to come to some understanding with those who seem

hell-bent on drawing blood. Some of

them want APC chairman, Comrade

Adams Oshiomhole out in a lurch

because they hold him responsible

for their unflattering situation. In

the fore-front of this grim battle of

survival is Zamfara State Governor

Abdul-aziz Yari Abubakar who is

in a spectacularly messy situation.

With pro-longed inability to hold

acceptable primary elections –

direct or indirect – the APC in the

state missed the opportunity of

getting its candidates approved by

the Independent National Electoral

Commission, INEC.

Unless some miracle happens,

Governor Yari and his anointed

candidates are out in the cold

and they won’t forgive Comrade

Oshiomhole for it. But the chairman

insists that the right thing was what

he did. His stubborn adherence to

principles and a commitment to

internal democracy have rubbed

some iconoclasts the wrong way.

He is at logger heads with Imo State

Governor Rochas Okorocha who

wants to install his son-in-law as

governor, primary or no primary.

Governor Ibikunle Amosun is finding

it difficult to get ticket for Adekunle

Akinlade, his preferred candidate for

governor. He is equally furious.

At the rear come equally tough and

unpredictable political gladiators

like Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo

State, Muhammad Jibrilla Bindow

of Adamawa State and the stormy

petrel of Kaduna State, Governor

Nasir El- Rufai, who has had his way

by replacing Senator Shehu Sani, the

Abuja anointed candidate with Uba

Sani, his political adviser. Still not

mollified, the irrepressible El-Rufai

may still be pushing for the ouster of

Comrade Oshiomhole, at least for his

temerity.

In this murky business of politics,

hell knows no fury like the bruised

political potentates whose paths you

cross at your own peril. Clearly, even

President Buhari – assumed to be the

most powerful person on this side of

the planet – seems to have conceded

to the state governors the divine role

of the Alpha and the Omega whose

words are law and whose actions are

unimpeachable.

It would not be surprising therefore

if Comrade Oshiomhole who came

to office like a new broom, finds it

increasingly difficult if not impossible

to make a clean break with the past.

Will they, the presumed owners of the

party, allow this comrade to fulfil his

mandate which is to install internal

democracy and restore credibility

and decorum in the affairs of the

party?

His success in this assignment, at

this defining moment, will be a true

testimony to the will power and the

steadfastness of President Buhari.

To buckle under now and allow

aggrieved governors to kick out the

chairman is to signal a lost hope and

a lost cause.