In addition to finding means to deliver on the promise of its economic reforms in 2025, which Nigerians eagerly await, the administration of President Bola Tinubu will have to navigate and deal with many geopolitical flashpoints, within the region and beyond.
Already, West Africa, and especially the Sahel, is on the boil, not just for the return of military rule or the ejection of French and American forces but also for the increasingly tense relationship between Nigeria and Niger. The latest face-off with the Republic of Niger, culminating in the bitter vitriol between the two sides, only indicates that Abuja would have to brace up to a geopolitical landscape of uncertainty at best or even a hostile pushback to its aspiration of a regional hegemony or what many Nigerians sublimely referred to as a “big brother” role.
The long-running security challenges in the region threw up regime types and international affiliations and alliances that is not in tandem with Nigeria’s preferences.
From the Niger Republic in Nigeria’s North West to Chad in its North East and Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea to the South by the Gulf of Guinea of the Atlantic Ocean and to the West by the Republic of Benin and Togo, Abuja can hardly boast of anyone within its neighbourhood, it can trust so sufficiently as to go to bed with its two eyes closed.
- Northerners have no moral right to reject Tinubu in 2027– Shehu Sani
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It is also possible that no one in Abuja cares about the emerging sub-regional landscape of geopolitical tensions, since political power, here, merely confers the privilege of high life and not the burden of strategic thinking and constructive policy actions.
The ‘France factor’, a region-wide pushback against former colonial power whose long relation with former colonies came into sharp focus recently is breeding tension. The countries in the region that have just kicked out the French military and cracked its security architecture around them, hardly believed that Paris will simply accept her fate and stay away.
Suspicion is mounting among them that Nigeria is providing a backdoor from which Paris could re-enter and possibly exert a revenge for their effrontery.
Despite that the Niger Republic military leader was the first to fire a direct salvo at Abuja, the perception that Nigeria is offering or could offer Paris its backyard to punish erstwhile friends is a sentiment broadly shared and this could galvanise into a political push-back, whose ramifications can be far-reaching than the government in Abuja can imagine.
A better understanding of the current geo-political slippery slope has greater scope to enrich the insight of policymakers than trading in incendiary rhetoric. Apart from a consequence in paralysing or even the disintegration of the joint multinational task force, a sub-regional military linchpin that has been credited with considerable success in the anti-terror campaign, the weakened Boko Haram, ISWAP and other assorted terrorist and criminal gangs can revive and return with vehemence.
The ‘France factor’ should never be allowed to be the reason for the collapse of the regional security architecture, painstakingly built over time to confront the situation in the region. While Nigeria does not need permission from her neighbours to conduct her international relations, strategic prudence requires that it takes into account their sensibilities and concerns because no foreign relations is viable without securing amity in one’s neighborhood.
Even without the need for neighbourly amity, a country like Nigeria with its endemic flashpoints cannot afford a neighbour with a keg of petrol and a matchbox, reeking with malice and a deep impulse for revenge at its corner.
For Nigeria, there are two options. Either to Ukranize them, that is to hammer them to a pulp as Russia is teaching Ukraine how not to poke fingers in the eye of your stronger and bigger neighbour or explore the several informal links to rebuild burnt bridges and reassure them that Nigeria’s relations with countries beyond the region including with their former colonial master would have no adverse consequence for both their regime’s and national security. However, the former is fraught with potential ugly backlash while the later requires civic sophistication and diplomatic finesse with a potential win-win outcome
A framework of regional amity would shore up Nigeria’s prestige as a respectable medium power whose global aspiration to play in the big leagues including the UN Security Council, G20, BRICS, the AU, and FOCAC is stable and ongoing. Without a considerable sub-regional consensus on Nigeria’s leadership, Abuja global aspirations will be a pipe dream, only useful for massaging the ego of the current occupants of State power.
Initiating rapprochement through several informal channels with a view to build consensus on common challenges of the fight against terrorism and piracy and also enhance the vibrancy of the informal economy across the sub-region will give Nigeria a leeway of stability in the domain of its immediate sphere of influence.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA), the second largest trade bloc after the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCED), which comprises the 10 East Asian countries and also included South Korea, China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, would take effect more fully this year. Nigeria is the single largest market within the bloc but would it be a dynamic leader in the bloc or just a mere dumping ground? Is Nigeria’s leadership properly framed to appreciate that the country can be positioned to be the workshop of the trading zone by reconfiguring its economic reforms from a mere reflexive monetarist reductionism, merely hankering at the issues of subsidy removals and tax collections instead of focusing on structural transformation with industrial and production capacity enhancement as the key driver.
ACFTA is a pan-regional and humongous economy of scale with prospects for significant returns to all stakeholders especially those with appropriate policy response to optimise the returns. ACFTA is a major foreign policy challenge whose returns can have effects on boosting the national aggregate, key cumulative variables that contribute to dynamic national economy and translate to national power, prestige and influence.
Beyond the region, the inauguration of Mr. Donald Trump as the US president will trigger realignment of strategies by many countries including major powers. One of their obvious strategies would be, to return to the region that Mr. Trump would mostly like to ignore; Africa.
Would Nigeria turn herself to the first port call and seize the moment of a potential backlash at the economic illiteracy of the coming White House.
The war in Europe will not likely end very soon because Russia, which is on a cruise momentum in the battlefield despite all that was thrown at her by the collective West, is not going to stop because Mr Trump said so. Russia insists that its war aim, including a non-alliance status for Ukraine and what Moscow say is the ‘the reality of ground’ which consists largely of those former territories of Ukraine, who have voted to join Russia must be respected. Keeping a level head and avoiding to be conscripted into cheering the West’s proxy war against Russia is a fine line of diplomatic practice that Nigeria must sustain.
The robust outcomes of the Summit of the Heads of State and Government of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held last year in Beijing will go into full implementation from this year to 2027. Nigeria’s participation at the summit and the strategic partnership between Nigeria and China agreed at a bilateral meeting of Nigeria President’s State visit to China at the same time, hold enormous prospects, if diligently implemented. China, a key target of Trump’s trade war is actively diversifying and consolidating her partnership with Africa and Nigeria in particular is topping the lists of her prime partners.
The way to respond to these opportunities is beyond the fine line of diplomatic shuffling. A real policy instrument to target, attract and domesticate investment flows to priority national areas with sectoral specifics is vital to securing the advantage of dynamic Nigeria-Sino relations and bringing it to bear on the practical improvement in Nigeria’s economy.
West Asia or the Middle East is a region that is traditionally fraught with tensions and flashpoints with global ripple effects. The oil market, which happens to be Nigeria’s most important international market has reputation to be shaken to its fundamentals from the political tremors of the region. Visibly engaging key powers with a view to reducing the volatility, would not be a vain endeavour.
Across regions of the world and major capitals, Nigeria’s diplomatic presence should surpass the routine, but rather actively and deliberately calibrating diplomacy to generate concrete returns, with added responsibilities to douse tensions and minimise risks, seizing new initiatives and exploring fresh trajectories in a manner that gives diplomacy its distinct character from other foreign forays.
Onunaiju is Research Director of Abuja-based Think Tank
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