Niger: Will Malagi challenge Bago for APC ticket in 2027?

Although official campaigns for the 2027 general elections are still months away, political speculation in Niger State is already intensifying. At the centre of the discourse is whether Mohammed Idris Malagi, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, will again challenge Governor Umaru Mohammed Bago for the All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket.

While Malagi has not publicly declared an interest in the governorship race, discussions within political circles suggest that the dynamics within the Niger APC remain fluid.

Unresolved issues from the previous primary elections, despite reconciliation efforts, are expected to shape the 2027 gubernatorial primaries if Malagi enters the race.

Recall that Bago emerged as APC flagbearer for the 2023 election after defeating Malagi in a heavily contested primary where he secured 540 votes against the minister’s 386 votes.

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Both Malagi and Bago have remained significant political figures in Niger State with both covertly making moves to consolidate their strength while weakening the other. Malagi’s position as a federal minister has bolstered his political profile, with his federal influence adding weight to his potential candidacy. Conversely, Bago’s incumbency and governance record also provide him with considerable leverage within the state and the party.

Mohammed Baba Usman, a political commentator, told Daily Trust that the outcome of any potential contest would depend on the political climate closer to 2027, as well as the decisions of the individuals involved and the party leadership. He emphasised that internal party dynamics, political alliances, and early campaign activities would play critical roles in shaping the contest for the ticket.

Supporters of Malagi have hinted that while their principal has yet to declare his interest in the governorship, there is mounting pressure from some APC stalwarts urging him to consider running.

Sources within the party disclosed that Malagi might be awaiting approval from the presidency before making his intentions public.

Despite Bago’s relative achievements, his administration has faced criticism, particularly regarding the management of state resources. Critics warn that the state could face deeper debt issues unless corrective measures are taken, which some argue could necessitate a change in leadership in the next election.

A Malagi loyalist, who asked not to be named, suggested that one factor that may discourage the minister from contesting is the uncertainty surrounding the completion of Bago’s ongoing road projects.

“There are pressures from party stalwarts for Malagi to show interest, but he has told us several times that he is not interested. However, if the president, as leader of the party, asks him to contest, he would have no choice. But for now, he has not declared his interest,” he added.

Observers believed that if Bago’s governance continues to face significant opposition or is perceived as ineffective, it could pave the way for challengers like Malagi, who might position himself as a candidate offering a fresh approach 

They suggested that this is more so as the APC in the state has been plagued by internal crises and factionalism since the primaries that secured Bago’s candidacy. These issues have resulted in several resignations among party officials and the suspension of others. They said should Malagi find himself at odds with Bago or other party leaders, it could intensify the rivalry for the party’s ticket. Similarly, Malagi could gain traction if key stakeholders dissatisfied with Bago’s administration rally behind him. 

A chieftain of the APC in the state, who asked not to be named, suggested that Bago’s political future would significantly influence the dynamics.

On the other hand, Bago’s loyalists maintained that his prospects remain strong, citing the developmental projects initiated during his tenure. 

Political analysts also told Daily Trust that public opinion would play a decisive role in determining the party’s choice. They posited that if Malagi presents a compelling vision for the state’s future and positions himself as a candidate for change, he could emerge as a formidable contender. 

Amid these speculations, unresolved party disputes add another layer of complexity. The resignation of the APC state chairman, Haliru Zakari Jikantoro, in August 2023, underscored lingering frictions within the party. Although Jikantoro cited personal reasons for his resignation, insiders revealed that disagreements with Bago, particularly over the ministerial nomination of Malagi, were a major factor. 

Following Jikantoro’s exit, other senior party officials, including the state secretary, Khaleel Ibrahim Aliyu, and the vice-chairman, Abdulsalam Madaki, also resigned. While they similarly claimed personal reasons for stepping down, many believe their decisions were linked to internal party disputes. 

Aliyu, who has since secured a federal appointment with the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), was celebrated by Malagi’s supporters. Observers viewed this as a strategic move ahead of the 2027 elections.