The urgent crisis of hope in Nigeria

Recently, I spoke to an old school friend over the phone. He seemed genuinely surprised that I spend as much time as possible in Nigeria and, despite the opportunity, I do not seem keen on making a permanent home elsewhere. I laughed. But he wasn’t laughing when he said if he got the chance to leave, he was never coming back.

“In fact, if I die abroad, I will never forgive the person who would bring my corpse back!” he said with the utmost conviction.

That shocked me. This desire to flee the home that one has known, the home that one has been born into. The truth is that many Nigerians are frustrated beyond quantification. The hope that has sustained many Nigerians is not renewed one year on, and frankly, that is worrying and should be worrying for President Bola Tinubu, who made that promise.

These are hard times for Nigerians and hard times for columnists as well. Every week, we have to rouse ourselves to find something to write that doesn’t sound like a repetition of previous claims, overstated lamentations, and reechoing of the wailing of Nigerians.

But the thing with reality is that it cannot be escaped. And the reality is that things are really bad in Nigeria. They have gotten progressively worse in the last year, and Nigerians have become so inundated by it and by their own wailings. As the Hausa people say, when one is overwhelmed by blows, it is the head that one protects, as inelegantly translated by me.

Nigeria is a resilient country, and Nigerians are a resilient people. We have faced many challenges before. Through trial and accident, not necessarily through careful planning, we have often stumbled our way through those. But perhaps the greatest challenge this country is facing now is our worst economic crisis in decades. And this is because of its implications in all aspects of life, including security. As it seems, we have finally escaped the military tyrannies of the last few decades and are now firmly entrenched in an economic tyranny that is chipping away at that famed resilience of Nigerians.

We are already experiencing a staggering inflation surge and rising cost of living. Our annual inflation figure has soared to nearly 30 per cent, which is the highest in three decades. This has meant that the cost of living has kept rising. Bare necessities are now out of the reach of most Nigerians, so much so that, for example, a single egg today costs between N200 and N250. That used to be the price for a whole crate of eggs.

All of this, of course, is tied to the pump price of fuel, which is selling at around N1,200 per litre. This is three times more than what Nigerians paid for it just nine months ago. And because wages, for those fortunate enough to earn some, have not kept up with the pace of inflation, it is really hard for Nigerians to afford anything. The disparity between inflation and earnings has created a chasm that Nigerians are falling into in droves. So, where did this start going wrong? It goes a long way back, to be honest. The mismanagement of previous governments, of course, is a factor. But the pivotal moment has to be President Tinubu’s unanimous decision to announce fuel subsidy removal. While this was aimed at redirecting public finances away from subsidy payments into other sectors, like infrastructure development, etc., the fact that it was abrupt and had no cushioning mechanism put in place to absorb the shock to the system meant an instant spike in transportation and energy costs and the concomitant rise in the price of commodities.

While subsidies have historically kept prices low, they have become an unsustainable drain on the budget, as much a drain as the cost of governance, if we are to be honest. Realistically, it needed to go, but if you are cutting spending on subsidies and channelling that into funding the government’s extravagant spending—like exorbitant vehicles for already high-earning public officers—then that is counterproductive.

The abrupt removal of the subsidy was a mistake, one that the government is now backtracking on, quietly. Married with the currency devaluation and the volatile exchange rate, it has worsened the situation. Nigeria is principally an importing country, and with a weak currency, that simply means a rise in import costs.

Frustrated Nigerians, like my old school friend, are continuously looking outward for solutions. I don’t blame them. Debates over “japa” have increased online and in private conversations. Many Nigerians are seeking opportunities to leave. That is the level of frustration some Nigerians feel.

These are basic issues that all Nigerians are facing and have been facing in the last year. Most of them are a direct consequence of the policies of this administration, which has so far failed to implement its campaign promises with any degree of success.

For instance, President Tinubu had promised to tackle insecurity and unemployment in one fell swoop by mass recruitment into the security services. While there have been recent successes in the killing of several prominent bandits like Halilu Sububu by soldiers, the strategy for tackling insecurity hasn’t really changed. There simply isn’t enough security presence in vast swathes of ungoverned spaces in Nigeria, which are at the mercy of any Tom, Dick, and Harry with a gun.

The fabled mass recruitment has failed to materialise one year on. As far as I know (and I stand to be corrected), I am unaware of any plans to introduce that policy, to create those jobs, to end insecurity, and to secure those ungoverned spaces. To say that Nigerians are tired of lamenting is an overstatement. After all, only last month, nationwide protests resonated across the country. They didn’t change much. But what they did was paint in vivid colours the youth restiveness in the country. Now, with food insecurity rising and the little available out of reach, people have been reducing portions, eating food by-products that should ordinarily be left for animals. The summary, in case you haven’t got it, is that Nigeria is in trouble.

If there is going to be any hope for this renewed hope, President Tinubu needs to move with speed to revitalise that hope. He has to make aggressive, people-oriented policies to reverse the consequences of these policies. Telling Nigerians to man up and endure the difficulties is not making things better. What would be clear are ideas for getting Nigeria back on track. So that even if people like my old school friend are loath to live in Nigeria, they could at least forgive those who would eventually bring their corpses back home.