This analogy is baseless and unfounded. It is devoid of scientific and historical impetus known with dominant analysis of democratic outcomes even in Africa.
To start with, Mobuto and Tinubu are two different personalities and leaders. While Mobuto was a dictator and emperor, Tinubu is a democrat – albeit in the true African sense. Mobuto came to power through a coup while Tinubu won through “popular votes”. Thus, the basis for comparison between the two is understood to be ‘Most Different Design “.
President Tinubu’s one year in office spurred policies that are too harsh and bear grudgingly on the welfare of the citizens. The current insecurity and occasioned downwards of agricultural production have inflicted shocks in food markets. These will surely affect how electorates mould their opinions and eventually craft acceptance or rejection of his candidature in 2027.
I’m not oblivious of the fact that that advantage rather than the power of incumbency is a key ingredient in Nigeria’s electioneering processes, but history is inundated with facts where such advantages were demystified – President Jonathan is a case in point.
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I also want to believe that the conversation around Tinubu’s government should not be limited to the 2027 elections alone, as citizens have still more years to perceive and judge his government, which eventually forms the basis for how they vote after his first tenure. The government needs to be made to understand that economic measures (if any) currently being rolled out in Nigeria, adversely affect well being and survival of millions of households. As such adjustments need to be made to trickle down economic gains and stimulus instituted to kickstart the dilapidated economy. If sufficient improvements are recorded by the greater majority of the citizens as a result of the anticipated adjustments, spelling a new beginning in terms of improved living conditions, and citizens feel at the end, they can offer Tinubu another shot.
Umar Magaji Umar is a UNFPA Ambassador
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