Fourteen months ago, democratic powers were granted to Tinubu following his electoral victory. It is expected that he will respect the social contract—an unwritten agreement between this government and Nigerians. He called it a Renewed Hope. Economy-crippling experiments—reforms—were adopted. They asked for patience and time, which the public does not have in abundance, to see the benefits of his policies. Clerics and national leaders supported the call. But as days pass, hope is lost even in his geo-political zone and circle.
The time requested is long enough for any well-intentioned policy to start bearing fruit. The people have called on the government to make a U-turn on its harmful policies. These include floating the naira, the forex market that subsidises the importation of necessary products for manufacturers, and subsidies in various sectors, including petrol, education, and others. The cost of removing these subsidies is turning out to be more expensive than paying for them.
But the administrators of the Tinubu-led government continue to argue that one fiscal policy—reducing spending via subsidy removal—is the solution to everything. They claim it can solve all the corruption, smuggling, public sector wastes, government inefficiency, and other governance problems. They also add the oldest accountant excuse—the government does not have that kind of money to keep spending—as if governance in Nigeria started in 2015.
On the contrary, the government is reluctant to fight corruption in the petroleum sector following several revelations of oil racketeering in the Niger-Delta creeks, in our territorial waters, and even outside the country. The Malta refinery keeps making the headlines.
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Even at that, Dangote offered to sell his refinery to the government, but they refused to consider the offer. They refused without picking any better option. They know that products will be cheaper when oil is processed in state-owned refineries; the importation of petroleum products from Europe will end; the argument for paying fuel subsidies and additional fiscal burden would have ended.
Nigerians would have appreciated their efforts to honour the social contract. But the administrators of this government do not see it that way. The agenda is to make people endure this self-inflicted economic hardship regardless of the consequences.
This! The refusal to respect the social contract is seen as arrogance, and it has provoked the voters—and rightly so. Nigerians from all sections feel disrespected by Tinubu and all the administrators he has appointed. Many people are beginning to call him a one-term President, and it is not difficult to see why that is.
It has been seven days since the protest to end bad governance in Nigeria began. I say so because I have not heard any announcement that the protests will be called off. Last Thursday saw the biggest rally across the country. Friday reported another impressive turnout, despite reported killings by law enforcement the previous day and imposed curfews. Saturday was decent. Atiku and other politicians suggested it was right for the President to address the nation.
As expected, the Presidency announced that Tinubu would be addressing the country on Sunday, which was leaked online. The expectation of the speech made the protest on that day lukewarm. But the people made it up on Monday as Tinubu’s disappointing speech gave them more reason to go out. The speech angered the people and motivated more to turn out in places like Kaduna and Zaria. It coincided with the protest in Bangladesh that saw the Prime Minister resign.
Few troublemakers were even calling for the military to take over, and some were waving foreign flags of Russia and France. The DSS responded quickly to apprehend the tailor sewing the foreign flags in the deep slums of Kano. If only they were this swift whenever kidnapping or terror activities happened, people would have been patient with the government.
The protests have been disruptive, and many have died. I pray for the departed. May it not be in vain. Atiku calls for ICC to hold Tinubu and the police accountable for opening fire on protesters. Curfew, an additional harmful measure, was imposed in some states in the North. It will cause further hardship to millions of households who survive on a day-to-day basis.
Hunger was the clear message communicated to Tinubu at the protest, especially in the north. The Northern youths took their destinies into their own hands. They liberated themselves and the region from the oppressive grips of the snake oil merchants—misguided religious clerics and uncultured political praise singers. It is a signal that the people will not be permanently docile.
Everyone blamed Tinubu. Nigerians were expecting him to understand the message of the protest. After all, he has always claimed to understand what the people are going through. But following his speech, Nigerians have now drawn the line against his government. Instead, he delivered an arrogant, provocative, and disrespectful speech to Nigerians. He sounded dictatorial, commanding the people to throw away their demands. He kept whipping the populist agenda—showing himself as the champion of the people against a corrupt and out-of-touch elite.
Complaints were raised across the political spectrum. Northern elders complained that he did not mention the insecurity challenges, which impact agriculture—the biggest employer of labour in the country. But this tells you where his priorities lie. Afenifere summarised his speech as “sticking to anti-people policy.” It tells you even his elders are against his position. Even his tribesman, Prof. Wole Soyinka, did not hide his disgust this time around. He said, “The state cannot serve bullets where bread is pleaded.”
In short, Nigerians did not buy that rhetoric. Their patience has waned to a point of no return, and his political ship is sinking faster than expected. A campaign video of him saying he would not bring back fuel subsidies no matter how long the people protested resurfaced, and his speech confirmed his stance. To be fair, that is one of the two consistent things the Tinubu-led administration has done—refusing to reflect on the economic consequences of their harmful policies.
Those old enough will remember a similar protest in 2012 that sparked APC’s power contest in 2015. Then, Nigerians were protesting against the government’s attempt to remove fuel subsidy. A protest led by Tinubu himself. He knew the outcome.
As I predicted, this administration will continue the way it started—badly. Their second consistency is reneging on their social contracts and with individuals. It will be their biggest undoing. What complicates this problem is the arrogance, provocation and disrespect they apply to their method. Of course, it makes it easier for people to detest them when the time comes to renew these agreements—2027.
If I were one of those clerics invited to the Aso Rock, I would have preached to him what Allah (SAW) commands us in the Qur’an: “Do not walk arrogantly on earth. You will never tear the earth apart or reach the heights of the mountains.” But I am not. As the wisdom goes, “Pride comes before ruin, and an arrogant behaviour appears before the fall.”
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