An agenda of stability and renewal for ECOWAS

When ECOWAS leaders last convened in a summit in Abuja in July 2023, it was a hastily arranged gathering to craft a response to a military coup in Niger Republic in the wake of a troubling succession of unconstitutional change of government in the region. As the leaders once again meet in Abuja on Sunday, it is plausible the political crisis in Niger Republic would dominate the agenda, but it would be a mistake to treat this issue in isolation.

The overarching challenge remains the democracy recession in the region, which is why the leaders would do well to remain laser-focused on the pressing issue of democracy reversal in the region. Before the Niger coup, military juntas have installed themselves in power in Guinea Conakry, Burkina Faso and Mali. Only last Saturday, an attempted coup was foiled in Sierra Leone, a tragic reminder of the fragility of democracy in the region.

As vexatious as the defiance and antics of the military juntas are, ECOWAS leaders must figure out how to nudge intransigent military juntas in the region from the brink and integrate their countries back into the ECOWAS family. The goal, of course, must remain an early return to constitutional rule in these countries.

In all of this, no one should minimise the enormity of the challenge, but it is a mission the leaders must find the courage to embrace, not because but in spite of the fragility of democracy in the region. In this task, the leaders themselves must lead the charge, providing capable leadership and governance that deliver jobs and security to their citizens. But an agenda of renewal and hope must also include a dogged commitment to free and fair elections, respect for term limits, human and minority rights – conflict triggers that have often provided facile justifications for military power grabs across the region.

There is yet a creeping geopolitical challenge that ECOWAS must not ignore. In the past few weeks, the military juntas that have constituted themselves into an axis of the disgruntled in our region and have been busy dismantling historical, stable and tested politico-security structures, alliances and partnerships, substituting these with uncertain and improbable new initiatives and coalitions.

Last Saturday, the juntas in Burkina Faso and Niger followed Mali to exit the G5 Sahel Force, an anti-jihadist group that had battled rampaging jihadist forces without much success since 2017, dealing a blow to the fight against sundry terrorist insurgencies in the region. In its place, the angry military juntas have created the Alliance of Sahel States, a mutual defence arrangement apparently hurriedly cobbled together to project strength and resolve and scare ECOWAS into submission.

Also, talks are reportedly underway to create a political confederation linking Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Nothing wrong here, except that the incipient confederation is a clear repudiation of ECOWAS. According to Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop, the Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger Confederation “will help to consolidate political and economic integration” among the Alliance of Sahel States, a declaration that appears to be a cheeky swipe at ECOWAS.

Apparently fueled by resentment and vengeance against France, a historical partner and benefactor in security and stability operations in the Sahel, the juntas appear to revel in renouncing ties with former Western partners. But it is reckless to thrash stable structures and partnerships in a knee-jerk fashion, not least because these anger-fueled policies could easily unravel and imperil the security and stability of the entire West Africa.

The leaders of the Alliance of Sahel States must be reminded that anger is not a strategy. Choosing to be pawns in the geopolitical competition between the West and Russia is their prerogative, but bad choices in a fragile security environment as the Sahel unfortunately come with grave geopolitical risks.

With the G5 effectively disbanded, France in disfavour and Russia the new sheriff in town in the Sahel, there is an elevated risk of proxy conflicts, upsurge in jihadist violence and sweeping insecurity in the Sahel and beyond. ECOWAS must be concerned.

ECOWAS leaders must also be attentive to the seemingly intractable scourge of terrorism in the region. Furthermore,  a good case could be made for the intensification of sanctions but it would suffice to merely retain the existing regime.

Sanctions work, and the purpose is to force a course correction and not to punish. While sanctions take time to achieve their intended objectives, there is ample evidence that the junta in Niamey is feeling the heat, so now is not the time to ease sanctions, as some Nigerians, including the Northern Senators Forum, would want President Bola Tinubu to do.

It bears repeating to stress that subsisting sanctions on Niger Republic were imposed by ECOWAS, not by Nigeria, so our president cannot ease those sanctions unilaterally. Those clamouring for sanctions to be eased need to be reminded that such posturing undermines Nigeria’s foreign policy, while also portraying its promoters as unwitting propaganda tools for the defiant military junta in Niamey. Because they represent constituents, legislators instinctively gravitate towards populism, but even so, they must recognize that democracy is at risk in West Africa and every effort must be made to reverse the trend.

Indeed, there is a Northern Senators Forum today only because Nigeria is a thriving democracy. In all of this, it is essential that at the Summit on Sunday and beyond, President Bola Tinubu continues to provide the steady and principled leadership that ECOWAS badly needs in this moment of turmoil and uncertainty.

Ambassador Awanen, a retired Foreign Service officer, wrote from Abuja.