War on banditry: Lessons learnt and way forward

By Prof. Usman Yusuf

“There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.”
–       The Art of War by Sun Tzu
 
Former President Muhammadu Buhari’s failure to checkmate banditry could be attributed to the following: {1}. His startling public admission that he did not understand banditry. {2}. He seemed poorly briefed on the existential threat of banditry. {3}. He was disconnected from the realities on the ground, {4}. He viewed banditry as a Military problem requiring a Military solution, ({5}. His unwillingness to understand banditry beyond the Military prism {6}. His stubborn refusal to widen his cycle of consultations beyond the Military.  {7}. He viewed banditry as the handiwork of his phantom enemies.

Sustained Military action is largely responsible for the recent respite from bandit attacks but, these attacks have now resumed all across the NW and NC especially in the rural areas. There is an ongoing civil war in Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Plateau with many lives lost daily.

The last government underestimated banditry’s existential threat to the nation. Cries for help from the citizens and their local leaders went largely ignored. Bandits have amassed so much wealth from ransom money that they use in acquiring weapons. They are the law in a lot of the rural areas in the region.

As former President Buhari fades into the sunset to await the verdict of history and God Almighty, we need to learn from the past and chart a way forward for peace.

As a member of Sheikh Ahmad Gumi’s peace initiative, I had a front row seat on issues related to banditry.  We went deep into the forests of 8 northern states (Kaduna, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Niger, Kogi and Kwara) meeting with bandits and their leaders, Fulani and local community leaders.

We also met with Traditional rulers, Clerics, Governors, victims on both sides, academics, heads of security services and some former heads of state. The purpose of our outreach was to listen to all sides and be a vehicle for peace. This initiative has been credited with rescuing many kidnapped victims and still remains a valuable resource for many victims across the nation.

The former Chief of Defense Staff (CDS) Gen. LEO Irabor (Rtd) graciously assembled all the former military service chiefs to hear our (myself, a researcher and a Fulani leader) presentations on our experiences in the forests, and a case to explore non kinetic approach as an option after the March 28, 2022 Abuja to Kaduna train attack by Boko Haram (BH) terrorists that resulted in the cold blooded murder of 9 and abduction of 63 passengers..

Subsequently, a Presidential Committee named the Chief of Defense Staff Action Committee (CDSAC) was set up which successfully negotiated the release of all the abducted passengers after six months of painstaking negotiations.

The Committee played a pivotal role in negotiating for the security of the Abuja- Kaduna road and rail corridors. It also generated a treasure trove of intelligence and extensive contacts nationally and internationally during this assignment.

LESSONS LEARNT FROM OUR VISITS

It became clear to me as I got more involved that banditry is a social problem brought about by corruption and bad governance and that all the causes are local and the solutions must be found locally. Unfortunately, things were allowed to fester and degenerate into outright criminality and the civil war seen in many parts of the North.

Although there is a definite role for the Military, there is not going to be a Military solution to banditry because conflicts like this have never been won on the battlefield. The increasing militarization of this conflict is only perpetuating more bloodshed. The role of the military is to provide an enabling environment for sincere dialogue that will lead to a lasting peace.

As Gandhi once said; “Anything you do for me without me is against me”, big plans from Abuja without consulting local stakeholders will never work. Traditional rulers, Community leaders, Clerics, local youth groups and other important local stakeholders need to be engaged.

Northern Governors need to address the drivers of insecurity; corruption, bad governance, poverty, illiteracy, unemployment, drug abuse and proliferation of weapons.

The law banning open grazing enacted by 17 southern states and Benue has been counterproductive and needs to be repealed.

Dialogue is a legitimate tool of warfare that needs to be  used wisely in conjunction with military approach for an enduring peace.

Banditry is a lot easier to solve with the right approach than any of the other security challenges facing the nation.

MEASURES THAT HAVE NOT WORKED

{1}. CBN’S failed attempt at Naira redesign: Had no impact on banditry as was advertised.

{2}. Collective punishment by Security Agents: Only serves as a recruitment tool for innocent Fulani youth.

{3}. Ban on open grazing: Has only aggravated an already volatile situation.

{4}. Declaration of bandits as terrorists: This has had no impact in this war.

{5}. Border closure: This has not stemmed the the inflow of illegal weapons.

{6}. Shoot on sight order: “The president has ordered security forces to go into the bushes and shoot whoever they see with sophisticated weapons like AK-47. – Presidency.

{7}. Ban on mining in Zamfara stare:
“The President has approved the imposition of a ban on all mining activities in Zamfara state with immediate effect until further notice.  – Gen. BM Monguno (NSA) 2, March 2021

{8}. Deployment of massive Military assets “The President has directed the Hon.Minister of Defence and the NSA to deploy massive Military and Intelligence assets to restore normalcy – – -”. – NSA. 2, March 2021

{9}. No fly zone over Zamfara: “The President has approved that Zamfara state be declared a no fly zone with immediate effect”. – NSA  2, March 2021

{10}. Surveillance of non-state actors: “All non-state actors not only in the country that have been causing problems have been placed under surveillance by the intelligence agencies”. – NSA 2, March 2021

{11}. Directive to reclaim ungoverned spaces: “With effect from today (March 2, 2021), the new Service Chiefs have been directed by the President to reclaim all areas dominated by bandits, kidnappers and other scoundrels and scallywags”. – NSA.

{12}. Directive to trail and flush out: “The President has directed the Military and Intelligence organizations to trail and flush out all the people that have been on our watch list”.  – NSA  2, March 2021

{13}. Reading the riot act to bandits: “You will meet your waterloo, you live on borrowed life. you are warned, you will be crushed, don’t try us, we have the capacity to finish you, you better change”, “we will speak to them in the language they understand”. – The Presidency

{14}. National Identity Number (NIN): Bandits have continued using their SIM cards  unchecked in spite of FGN’s directive for SIM cards to be registered.

{15}. Telecommunications shutdown: Shutting down telecommunications in some states ended up hurting the economy and increasing the vulnerability of civilians.

{16}. Other measures: Some state shut down markets, imposed night curfews, limited vehicular traffic, closed major roads, and banned motorcycles.

{17}. Amnesty Programs by some states: This did not work because of mutual distrust, lack of sincerity and coordination between the state governments and FGN’s lack of interest.

Bandits-Boko Haram Alliance
One of Sheikh Gumi’s main goals was to reach out to these bandits and preach to them to embrace peace before BH poisoned them with their twisted religious ideology. Unfortunately, this nightmare became a reality on March 28, 2022 when BH terrorists attacked the Kaduna-Abuja train. BH already has some foothold in Niger, Kogi, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi and Sokoto states.

MAPPING
Most of the bandits are indigenous to their areas of operations. Identifying them and their areas of influence is crucial to understanding their motives, character, membership strength and how and who to fight. Equally as important is identifying and using as interlocutors their parents, teachers, inlaws and other influential relatives who are well known and live in the local villages. These important influencers need to be engaged as partners for peace.

ILLEGAL GOLD MINING
Zamfara’s huge gold reserve is one of the major drivers of banditry. There are credible reports of Chinese nationals arming bandits to protect their illegal mining projects in the state. This is the reason the former President directed a no fly zone over the state. But as it was with many of such Presidential directives, nothing came of it.

FOREIGN CONNECTIONS
At least 8 of the 10 countries in the Sahel region are facing similar security challenges. Col. Gaddafi’s fall has made the region awash with weapons. Nigerian bandits buy their weapons from arms merchants in Niger Republic.

Our assignment on CDSAC revealed that many of the Fulani herders displaced from the conflict in Zamfara have in addition to being IDPs all over the country, many have migrated with their cattle to as far away as Ethiopia, South Africa, Central African Republic, Gabon and Benin Republic. We also found out that some of the leadership of the BH terrorists that attacked the Abuja-Kaduna train have connections in Cameroun, Benin Republic, Mauritania and Sudan.

“YANSAKAI”
These are local vigilante groups armed by some states to protect their communities against bandit attacks. Unfortunately, because there are no control, they go overboard by killing the innocent and perpetuating the bloodshed. State governments and community elders must work tirelessly to reconcile communities that have lived in peace for generations.

FULANI VIGILANTES
There is a call by some Fulani leaders to get their youths recruited and armed and go on joint operations with the military to fight the bandits. While this idea may sound attractive, I would urge caution and instead, advice for intensive and sincere civil engagements rather than escalation of bloodshed.

The FGN should be very wary of those pushing the idea of “Fulani Vigilante” akin to the Civilian JTF in Borno. Banditry is not the same as BH, those hatching this idea are armchair conflict entrepreneurs who neither understand the nature of banditry nor the culture of Fulanis and other stakeholders in the Northwest nor the terrain of the region.

Besides, it will be delusional to think that Fulanis will pick up arms to kill their brethren. Even if that were to happen, Nigeria may end up with an intra-ethnic civil war pitting Fulani group against each other.

This will only perpetuate more bloodshed and make post-conflict disarmament and peace all the more difficult to achieve.

Such a plan also has the potential of creating unnecessary conflict between the military and the vigilantes.

CUTTING DRUGS SUPPLY CHAIN
Drugs fuel banditry and the viciousness of bandits who are mostly child soldiers. Their drugs of choice are Marijuana, Tramadol, Codeine, Pentazocine (Pentax), Boska and Sudrex which are easily available all across the country even in village Chemists close to the forests. The NDLEA should intensify its efforts with other relevant agencies.

CUTTING ARMS SUPPLY CHAIN
Reliable intelligence has shown that bandits procure most of their weapons from Niger Republic. No efforts should be spared in interrupting the supply chain from any route.

ROLE OF TRADITIONAL AND CLERICS
Just as Traditional rulers and Clerics played a pivotal role in denying Boko Haram a foothold in the NW in the past, the FGN should  actively engage these leaders not only in the fight against banditry but in prying them away from joining or aligning with BH.

COMMANDER IN CHIEF (C-in-C)
Nigeria needs a President and C-in-C that is compassionate, strong, hands on and decisive. One who understands the nation’s security challenges and who demands for results and accountability.

NORTHERN GOVERNORS
Northern state governors bear a huge responsibility for the serious insecurity in the region. It is safe to say that these governors carried the pregnancy and gave birth to this monster called banditry.

The region leads in the number of people in poverty, dilapidated schools and hospitals, worst scores in WAEC, JAMB and NECO, children out of school, unemployed youth, drug abuse, hunger and hopelessness. Their holding onto LGA funds has exacerbated poverty in the rural areas, many do not pay basic minimum wages and owe workers months of salaries and pensions.

They took foreign loans to build flyovers at the expense of human capital development leaving the state poorer, more indebted and much less secure than they found it. There can never be peace in any society with as much inequity as there is in the region.

On security, no two governors worked together on any meaningful policy. Their responses varied from one paying bandits protection money to another callously calling for the burning down of the forests and killing every living thing that lived therein, to one that told people in his state to arm and protect themselves to one that enacted a draconian ethnic cleansing law. Majority of these governors just threw in the towel and abandoned the people to their own devices.

ZAMFARA STATE
This state deserves a special mention because banditry originated here when the grazing lands of Fulani herders were unlawfully confiscated and allocated to farmers and politicians by one of the state’s  past administrations. The state has been plagued by chronic bad governance and corruption more than others. Studies have shown that over 70% of bandits originated from the state. The answer to a lasting solution to banditry lies in this state.

MINISTER OF DEFENSE
This is one of the most senior members of the cabinet that helps in shaping and executing the defense policy of the government. Unfortunately, the two occupants of this office in the last 8 years did not live up to the expectations of the office. This is largely responsible for the incoherent defense policy, inter service rivalry and lack of synergy between the services which plagued the last administration.

NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER (NSA)
The immediate past NSA’s tenure as Nigeria’s longest serving NSA was blemished by unhealthy rivalry and turf wars between the security services, several intelligence failures, incoherent national security policies, the worst insecurity of our lifetime and a President that was poorly advised on national security matters.

NIGERIAN ARMED FORCES
The Military does not have enough boots on the ground to protect our people and effectively engage the bandits, indeed, we did not see a single soldier in any of the forests of the 8 states we visited. Making forays into the forests and dropping bombs will not do it. Villagers complain that the military does not answer their call for help. We have heard from innocent Fulani herders of the involvement of some bad eggs in the military in collective punishment, illegal seizure and sale of their cattle.

NIGERIAN POLICE
This very important arm of law enforcement has been reduced to guarding VIPs and anyone that can pay at the expense of our people in the rural areas where they are most needed.

INTELLIGENCE SERVICES
The fact that these bandits are still freely attacking villages on hundreds of motorcycles is a huge intelligence failure. Mass abductions of school children, the Abuja-Kaduna train attack, Kuje Correctional Centre attack by BH and the continuing inflow of illegal arms are examples of many unacceptable intelligence failures.

THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NASS)
This NASS must take full responsibility for the current state of insecurity. It is actively involved in the corrupt practice of padding the budget of all arms of government. It has also been derelict in its oversight responsibilities.

FULBE ELITES
All the major security challenges facing this country (Banditry, BH, IPOB-ESN) are manifestations of elders losing control of their youths. We heard these lamentations from Fulbe leaders (Ardos) in all the forests we visited. I call on all Fulbe elites to please get involved in any way possible in the search for peace.

CORRUPTION
Corruption is the cancer that has eaten into the fabric of our nation, unless it is tackled, we will only be going round in circles.

WAY FORWARD
{1}. The C-in-C should assemble a team that will educate him on all the ramifications of banditry

{2}. The FGN should engage all relevant  local and national stakeholders.

{3}. Northern Governors need to address the drivers of insecurity

{4}. Presidential Advisory Committee: create one that will look into all the issues of banditry and make recommendations.

{5}. Reconciliation: Intensive national reconciliation efforts should be made with the full support of the FGN.

{6}. Rehabilitation: Villages and towns have been displaced, people and their livelihoods need to be rehabilitated.

{7}. Reparations: The FGN needs to make assessments of losses on all sides and find a way to help in paying some reparations to victims on all sides.

{8}. Social Amenities: Provision of social amenities like schools, health clinics, water supply, employment for the teaming youth must be addressed.

{9}. Disarmament: Disarmament of all non-state actors bearing arms should be gradual and complete as trust returns back.

{10}. Annual Migration of cattle is a source of conflict between herders and farmers which must be addressed.

{10}. Grazing reserves: States and Federal governments need to provide land for grazing of cattle, veterinary services and water for the cattle.

{11}. Dialogue: Continuing dialogue between communities is essential to peace building.

{12}. Amnesty: This is crucial for a full and for genuine reconciliation to happen

{13}. Prosecution of any erring party

{14}. Diplomacy: Collaboration with neighbors on the flow of weapons across the borders.

{15}. Vigilance at our seaports and land borders.

Usman Yusuf is a Professor of Haematology-Oncology and
Bone Marrow Transplantation.