Idayat Hassan is the Executive Director, Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD. In this interview on Daily Politics on Trust TV, she discussed why some Nigerians fail to see some good outcomes of the 2023 general election, the huge expectations on the new administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, his rollout governance template and implications, among others.
You followed the election right from inception till it was over. Are you happy with the outcome?
The election has come and gone, and I think it is a mixed bag; it is not doom the way many people projected it to actually be. There were successes and there were challenges in this election. At least, we saw a lot of upsets that previously were not possible. When you look at the National Assembly election, you will see we now have a National Assembly with eight political parties, which is unprecedented.
Have we ever had something like that before?
There’s been nothing like that for the 24 years of democracy, which gives us a tablecloth of parties, and it is actually making the ruling party not to be the majority in the National Assembly today.
Especially the House of Reps…
Especially, the House of Reps where they don’t have the majority currently. I think that is inspiring, in the sense that it tells us that even the voters, who we claim are often not literate; that they don’t identify symbols, were able to identify the symbols of some of these parties which shows us the sophistication of an average voter in this country and kudos to them. In spite of all the challenges, they turned out to vote for people they believed could actually win. We saw four-time, five-time members unseated, we saw some governors unseated. We saw about seven governors who have actually made the Senate their retirement home, defeated. In fact, what is even fascinating is that in some of these states, take Cross River as an example, it was Governor Ben Ayade that lost a senatorial seat, the other candidate actually won on the platform of APC. We even saw a sitting governor lose in Zamfara. All across the country, there were these pockets of successes; that is what we will call it. We saw an okada rider actually win a seat. We saw a woman – a very young woman in Kwara State, win a state House of Assembly seat.
We have a volunteer teacher dislodging a Speaker in Yobe, right?
Yes, there are lots of these positives that we are yet to unpack, or yet to highlight about this election that should actually make us feel good that 24 years our democracy is actually maturing in itself.
I am happy this is coming from you as director, CDD. Now, where did we get it wrong that some people are saying this is the worst election in Nigeria’s history.
I don’t think it is the worst election because even the people saying it is the worst election did not go to the street, they went to the court, and it tells you that our democracy is actually maturing.
I think we had a very huge expectation. For instance, we expected that the polls will commence timely across the country but this poll did not commence timely in some places which raised a challenge.
We had naira scarcity, we had fuel scarcity, and we had all these already poisoning the atmosphere ahead of the elections.
Then you had a highly contested election where you have three of the biggest ethnic groups in Nigeria fielding candidates and when you look at the votes at the end of the day, you see it was fragmented along ethnic lines.
You see Atiku Abubakar, for instance, won five out of the six states in the North East where he comes from, the only state he did not win was Borno which is the state of the current vice president. He flipped Yobe which has always voted for ANPP, CPC.
Then you go to the North West, he won four out of the seven states in the North West where they are telling you that this namu namu (he is ours, he is ours) thing, of course is important.
And in the South West, Tinubu won four of the states, in the South East, Obi won all the states, winning big by not even giving the other candidates the opportunity to get the 25 per cent in the South East.
And with the challenge and promise that the INEC result viewing platform is going to work, even the fact that many people felt that this INEC result viewing platform will start tabulating the results, and we will just see the result automatically like that.
Many did not understand that it will just be a snapped picture which you put up there, so a lot of expectations were put into the election and because these expectations were not met, it dampened the moral of some people, taking away all the positives in the election. And one thing we rarely talk about in this election is that there was so much fixations on the presidential election which occurred the same time as the National Assembly election.
There is so much fixation that we have not been able to go deep into other elections to see that there were indeed some good things that have actually come out of this election and because of a lot of cyber bullying and the ethnicisation of the contest also, it takes courage to sit and say that there was something good in this election.
The president has been inaugurated, governors in 28 states; now looking at the calibre of people that came for the inauguration from the UK, US, India and all over, is this a validation of the process?
I think it is. The election is over, we are now in the business of governance and all patriotic Nigerians should actually focus on governance; how it will be delivered to us, why we will continue to keep an eye on what is happening in the judiciary because it is part of electoral justice to pursue justice to the end.
But a new government has come into place and we saw the president of the United States of America, Joe Biden, actually issued a statement to congratulate the new President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and he actually sent the biggest delegation since his assumption of office, a 10-man delegation.
Compared to what he sent to other countries?
Yes, to any other country for this inauguration, which I think is big. The British Prime Minister Sunak, King Charles also sent congratulatory messages. You saw that India was actually represented by their defence minister, most of our West African neighbours were present for the inauguration. Nigeria is really important to the world, and not just Africa.
And I think as a nation, we will keep keeping our eyes on what is happening in the judiciary because we will not at any point take away people’s right to pursue justice, electoral justice.
I saw some postings on Twitter and Instagram, where some people, we all call them social media bullies, were saying that with the kind of delegation that witnessed the swearing in of Tinubu, the best option for those that have gone to court is to calmly go there overnight, withdraw the files and wait for 2027.
No, that is denying people justice and at no time should we say that people should not pursue justice. They have to pursue justice because it also gives room for closure.
Don’t you think it strange that politicians are always going to court?
It is not strange; this is not the first time. With the exception of 2015, when President Goodluck Jonathan did not challenge the elections in court, every election since 1999 has actually been challenged in court.
Olu Falae and Obasanjo, Buhari and Obasanjo, Buhari and Yar’adua, Buhari and Jonathan, then in 2019 we had Buhari and Atiku Abubakar and now we have Tinubu and Atiku, Tinubu and Peter Obi and Tinubu and APM, so there is nothing new.
So, this election represents different things to different people in different parts of the country. In some parts of the country, people are very happy, in some parts of the country, they are not even interested in the top, which is the president, they are looking at the bottom and in other parts, they are busy jubilating and saying our time has come.
President Tinubu is now at the helm of affairs and Nigerians are actually defining what they expect from him. Some say economic growth, some security, good governance, inflation, etc. Can you summarise the expectations?
I think two things come out straight there; people are really yearning for economic growth and they are also yearning for security which is very important. We see for the first time in the history of the country, we are not even talking about corruption. This is the first time. People only spoke about food, job.
Is it that Buhari has wiped out corruption?
No, not because he has fought it but because people want the basic things of life now, those are their priorities. When the economy works, they will have food, they will have job, there will be reduced inflation, there will be investment, they will even have the opportunity to buy and sell. There will be conducive environment not just for foreign investment but even for the farmers, for the traders, for us to have our social life, for development to happen.
Now, can we say the last government has failed in the area of security?
When Buhari came, we only had Boko Haram occupying some places in the three states of the North East – Borno, Adamawa and Yobe, and rural banditry was beginning to rear its head in the North West but it wasn’t this big.
You have contestation over natural resources, land and water, farmers and herders’ conflicts spanning more than 20 states in the federation.
You have the separationist agitation in the South East, you have a bit of it in the South West, the Niger Delta of course remains restive and you have cultism, kidnapping and other forms of vices.
In fact, when you look at the Niger Delta from the restiveness alone, oil bunkering skyrocketed to an extent that it took away all our earners; so, he left the country with an epidemic of insecurity.
But Tinubu commended him for his effort and said he will build on what he has done…
President Tinubu will have to commend him because of course they belong to the same party and on his first day on assumption of duties, he will have to toe the political lines.
Are Nigerians commending him? Do Nigerians feel safe? Insecurity, I think, is one serious challenge we have and we are looking up to the new administration to see what they will do.
People are complaining of marginalisation and I am beginning to have a feeling that it is only when every Nigerian is the president that the cry of marginalisation will stop. Is that correct?
No, it is a matter of inclusion, how do we include people? It is not a matter of jostling for who gets what. How do we include young women, young people, persons living with disability, ethnic grouping in everything that we do so that one does not actually feel left out at all levels of government? And how do you include them in education, in all the sectors, not just one sector?
Justice is extremely important. You have to do a justice sector reform that is holistic, so if you look at the administration of Criminal Justice Act for instance, it should have cured some of these deficits.
But states like Zamfara that has so much insecurity, are yet to domesticate it at that level, then it is another thing that you have to retool the judiciary and take away corruption from the judiciary.
Our borders are also extremely important; because of the porosity of the borders, every Tom, Dick and Harry can actually come into the country to perpetrate violence.
From what you have said, it is like Tinubu has to start from ground zero. However, some of these things cannot be achieved at the centre, what roles do you think sub national levels have to play?
They do have roles, we all have roles because it is a federation really and when we are talking about achieving, the first thing to put out on the security is that while the military or the unicentric approach is necessary, more boots on ground, you need the non-military approach, the non-kinetic approach to tackle these issues.
It is also good that we start seeing that everything is not in Abuja although Abuja must set the policy direction so that the states can toe the line on some of these things.
For instance, if you ask people what is their priority in the North West, they want a synergized fighting force, the same way we have Operation Hadin Kai in the North East. They want a similar operation that will be able to fight the bandits and terrorist in the North West, not having Operation safe haven, operation this, operation that across the six states where there is insecurity, and it can be done simultaneously, which also shows that the states must collaborate for things to happen.
Are you okay with the way subsidy was removed?
I am worried about the removal of subsidy. Personally, I don’t know if I am actually ready to pay more money for fuel. I know I am one of the people who feel like maybe subsidy is a scam but we are prepared that we will be paying N700 per litre and we also feel that it should be a phased thing where there should be communication, it should not be by executive fiat which will take effect immediately.
This is where we need the new president, as a father of the nation, to do better in terms of tone setting because that speech (inaugural speech) could have been one where we know that there will be a removal of subsidy but it should be phased.
But don’t you think it is better he takes the bull by the horn because since 1999, leaders have been dodging this landmine.
We love the fact that he has taken the bull by the horn. Two things stand out for me; the single forex system, this foreign exchange thing. I love that and I love the subsidy also.
Emefiele met him in the Villa; even though we didn’t get the specifics. What do you expect, will he sack him?
I think that will be one of the tone setters for Nigerians; he can be sacked since many believed that he brought unnecessary hardship to the nation.
But Buhari gave him (Emefiele) national honours…
Buhari is gone; Buhari is now a yesterday…
Do you want Tinubu to reverse the honour?
No, he can keep his honour but we want Tinubu to tone set for us that this is where he is going, we are removing fuel subsidy but we must have conservation around the removal of the subsidy.
Then the one about Emefiele, he can keep his honour but there should be some form of accountability for all he has done, not just about the naira policy.
In any sane country, the minute he attempted to vie for office as a sitting CBN governor, he should have been asked to resign.
Do you foresee maybe a reversal of some of the last minutes policies of the Buhari administration, for instance the $800million for palliatives?
I don’t know how they will share this money and I think that any administration will definitely walk back on some of these policies. It might not make them look good to the outgone administration but it will be done. You have seen in Kano, what Abba Gida-Gida (governor) has done to many of Ganduje’s policies.
Do you expect some things like that at the national level?
Yes, we need to take bold decisions. Some of the appointments, the approvals…Some of the policies like signing bills.
Do you want Tinubu to upturn all of those?
There were lots of things even beyond what we know that will really have to be upturned. Nigeria is on a precipice because it has been eight years of frustration for many people but I don’t want to always throw the Buhari’s government away like that.
When it comes to infrastructural development, they did well. In agriculture also, they did considerably well.
What about food? I checked yesterday and a bag of rice is N34,000; in fact, in some places, it is N40,000 and you are saying they did a lot in agriculture?
But the thing is that at least you are eating our local rice which is very healthier for us in the long run.
But how many people are eating it now?
Yes, really, when you talk about the fertilizer programme, I think that was good, as well as the Anchor Borrowers Programme.
The problem with Buhari which must not happen is that when they make a policy, they counteract the policy. It will be something positive but he will make another policy that will take away the positive and turn it to negative and that is what this administration should actually shy away from. You cannot have policies that are not converging. We need an open government that will actually speak to Nigerians, we do not need a government that feels like Nigerians should just go to hell, ‘we are not going to speak to you’. For the last government, I think this has not worked.
Do you expect Tinubu to open the remaining borders that were closed?
He has to open the borders because if he is veering towards capitalism, the way they are going, the opening of the borders is actually one. Either you open the border or you do not open the border. On daily basis, there are movement of goods and services.
If you look at services alone now, I am not even talking about goods. In terms of building, all these structures and edifice you are seeing either in Lagos, Port Harcourt, or Abuja, are being built by our neighbours from Togo, Benin Republic. So, see how the services are actually moving into the country, that is minus the goods which we continue to get every day.
So, it is even better to formalize it so that whoever is coming as a mason or someone laying the tiles has to pay taxes to the government…
Exactly, it (border closure) is also counterproductive to the ECOWAS protocol of free movement of goods and services which is one of the guiding spirits of ECOWAS itself. Then, we will be able to tax, we will be able to get money, we will know what is actually coming into our country as against people having to take all those footpaths to bring in the rice, to bring in the vegetable oil, to bring in even our kilishi (dry meat).
What areas do you think President Tinubu needs to reform to avoid some of the holes we fell into during the 2023 election?
I think there were two things, one it would be the electoral integrity system composing of the political process and the technical aspect which is the electoral management body. When it comes to the electoral management body, they will need to change the appointment processes.
Do you mean appointment of national commissioners, INEC resident electoral commissioners and national chairman?
The whole gamut of this apparatus, the process should be changed. The appointment process along the line of what was proposed by the Uwais Panel report or anything new because these appointments of partisans into the commission led to some of the challenges.
But is there any Nigerian that is not partisan?
But you know some are clearly partisan; if you look at the Sokoto resident electoral commissioner, how do you explain this to Nigerians if they could see his picture as an APC aspirant? Doesn’t it necessarily mean that he continues to be partisan?
So how should the recruitment process be done?
The recruitment should be more of ensuring non-partisan, then people with capacity. The fact that you are professor does not even mean that you know about election, does not mean that you know management.
Before President Buhari left, there was a bill to pass the electoral offences commission, that should be one thing that President Tinubu should immediately pick up to build trust with Nigerians.
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