Kwara: What next for Saraki dynasty?

The results of the last presidential and governorship elections in Kwara State dealt another blow to the Saraki dynasty. Unimaginably, the governorship election became the second successive electoral defeat for the former Senate president and the living head of the Saraki dynasty, Dr Bukola Saraki since he inherited the structure from his late father.

The election, which returned Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq to power for a second term, left the Bukola Saraki-led Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with only a state parliamentary seat out of 24 in a near repeat of the 2019 ‘Otoge’ (enough is enough) tsunami, where the All Progressives Congress (APC) had a clean sweep.

Saraki and the dynasty had returned to the drawing board and launched the Osuwa (We’re tired) slogan to counter the Otoge nemesis of 2019 led by Abdulrazaq. The result was, however, an anti-climax as they were roundly ‘defeated’ across the state.

His supporters, however, claimed that their loss was ‘heavily influenced’. It was a complete turnaround from past scenarios when Saraki called the shots and determined who got what at the state and national levels.

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Implication of 2023 elections

For the Sarakis and AbdulRazaqs, the struggle for the soul of Kwara politics dated back to the 1970s when their paths crossed after a promising beginning. Differences in their patriarchs’ political outlook saw them operating from opposing camps, with the late Olusola Saraki (Oloyee) and former Senate leader emerging as Kwara’s strong political leader.

Oloyee cemented that status with his philanthropic activities and subsequently installed successive governors thereafter, including his son, Bukola in 2003.

Bukola continued where his late father and Waziri Ilorin stopped until 2019 when the Otoge episode truncated the transition against a prophecy that he would dominate Kwara politics.

Before the 2019 elections, despite ‘signs’ that Saraki was facing the biggest threat to his firm grip of Kwara politics, top apostles of his late father, whom he inherited, said it would fizzle out like the many battles the dynasty overcame in the past. His yes-men hinged their conviction on a Senegalese 1977 prophecy that the Saraki dynasty would only be relinquished, if at all, of the control of Kwara political leadership, after 80 years.

In 2017, the late chairman of the Elders Forum while Saraki was still in the APC, Alhaji Suleiman Oba Bolanta, narrated that, “In 1977, Raheem Itaegba, Alhaji Saidu Obalowu Agarawu and myself were sponsored by the late Baba Saraki to Kaolack in Senegal to consult with senior scholars and saints over his political reign in Kwara.

“They told us that Saraki would rule Kwara for 80 years uninterrupted, but warned about challenges ahead, which would only make the dynasty stronger. 2017 marked 38 years of that prophecy from 1979 when the dynasty gained power in Kwara. If the Saraki dynasty will not produce the leadership of this state, that will come after 42 years, which explains why past challenges encountered fizzled out,” he said.

Bolanta subsequently warned aggrieved members who left “to retrace their steps or face the consequences because they were angry for what God decreed, otherwise they would labour in vain outside the dynasty”. However, many top S’arakites’, including Saraki’s cousin, Ope, left and pitched tent with the governor for the last election.

Denouncing ‘federal might’

While some antagonists of Saraki argued that leaving the ruling party prior 2019 was a political blunder that halted the full manifestation of the ‘prophecy’, others believed it would have taken a miracle for the dynasty to survive the otoge storm.

Saraki, at different media engagements, had always maintained that he was not shy or afraid of taking decisions on his conviction no matter the perceived consequences or implications once it would benefit the masses.

His opponents further sold the narrative that Kwarans had rejected his leadership style, which they said was not helped by some of his devotees on ground and predecessors. But the former Senate president and supporters attributed the twin defeats (2019/2023) to “propaganda and vote building,” an account the present government said amounted to the failure to see the past the new political culture in Kwara.

Change of strategy

Although some loyalists of the dynasty believe there is the need to re-jig his leadership style, some close aides are of the view that it is the best.

“We have a lot of things to review if we want to come back in the light of the present reality in Kwara. Our peader’s (Saraki) focus on presidential aspiration negatively robbed off on the dynasty back home,”a Sarakite who doesn’t want his name in print told Daily Trust on Sunday.

For Saraki’s opponents, the latest ‘defeat’ is a signal that the dynasty has reached its end and it will be difficult for him to return as the political leader in Kwara like his late father, in the light of the ‘demystification and sophistication” of the new Kwara political space.

In a recent ThisDay interview, the special assistant on legal matters to the governor, Ambassador Sambo Murala, said the last election was a referendum that the Saraki dynasty had “permanently ended” in Kwara State.

However, Lawal Akanbi Sharafadeen, the Kwara State PDP media campaign director for the last election, disagreed, saying, “Such tales are fantasies and a side attraction to what the family is known for. His leadership style remains the best.”

Sharafadeen, a core Sarakite said, “A single electoral circle cannot erase what the Saraki family has achieved in Nigeria in terms of human capacity, philanthropy and policy. It is absurd to think that Saraki, a former Senate president and two-time governor will need political office for validation. The Saraki family is still one of the most successful in politics and philanthropy in Nigeria; and we will continue to grow.

“It is normal to have class struggle between families, but what other families trying to outshine the Saraki family don’t know is that theirs is not for showbiz, its core value is philanthropy demonstrated by Saraki and his late father, which has sustained them in people’s hearts.

“The Saraki government stands out in Kwara since its creation; and they cannot erase all his landmark footprints. Those saying we should forget him should remember that Gbemi is presently a minister and doing very well, while Saraki is still doing projects and appointments on a daily basis and remains most relevant among former governors that came with him in 2003, within or outside government.”

Sharafadeen said the last election “was one of the worst in Nigerian history as propounded by local and international observers replete with vote buying, intimidation and manipulation. It is not what the government should claim as defeat for the dynasty because the Saraki family will never purchase such stain tainted victory.”

He advised Saraki to be focused, courageous and undeterred “because we draw courage from him. We must remain idealistic, value-driven and truthful to the course. Of course, we would change a little bit of our tactics and definitely improve on the flaws we have seen in this last election, but we will never engage in vices. We must maintain the momentum in building people, which Saraki has promised to improve, and which explains why he is starting right away rather than waiting for next election.

He enjoined all Sarakites who lost this election to be consoled and contented that they chose righteousness to all the vices that trailed the election in the state.

For Dr Bakare Adebola, the national secretary of the Nigeria Political Science Association (NPSA), losing an election is not the end of a political dynasty.

“No dynasty dies in politics except it decides to. We don’t know what the APC government will do in four years or the kind of candidate the Sarakites will field in 2027, he may be somebody loved and people will have no choice. I don’t see this as the end of the dynasty; it depends on how they want to navigate this.

“Election is gone and governance will commence by May 29. One of the mistakes the Saraki dynasty made was to go into its shell immediately they lost in 2019 and waited till another election was around the corner to come out.

“Following the same snail pattern will amount to another defeat in 2027. Now out of power, if they refuse to go back to their shell and continue to embark on programmes to ring a bell with the name, they may come back next election, but it requires money,” he said.

The political scientist urged Saraki to learn from the Kano scenario, where the Kwankwasiyya movement lost in 2015 and 2019 but bounced back in 2023, winning the governorship seat and two senators.

On his part, Dr Abdul Alabi, a lecturer in the Political Science Department, Kwara State University (KWASU) said, “That he lost doesn’t mean the dynasty has ended, just like it happened in Kano. Fresh four years for the governor will equate Saraki’s eight years and provide the electorate a better ground for comparative analysis.

“But no politician can establish a permanent dynasty again in Kwara. The people are now more civilised and politically conscious.

“Governor Abdulrazaq should itemise all the achievements of Saraki and his successor, Ahmed AbdulFattah, with a view on how to advance Kwara against a mindset to erase them, otherwise he will not achieve anything at the end of the day, which will negatively affect his own dynasty.”

The head of the Department of Political Science, University of Ilorin, Dr Mohammed Alada noted that “the Saraki dynasty and PDP suffered trust deficit during the election.

He said, “The PDP should not relent but focus on what they had done against what the governor or the APC failed to do. This is not to say that the Abdulrazaq dynasty has become the go-to for Kwara because it was not the work of the APC or sophistication of the Abdulrazaq dynasty that won the election, but the perception of the people. I will advise them not to over celebrate but to embrace the members of the opposition.”