Shinkafi’s defection and PDP’s fortunes in Zamfara

Last week, a former governor of Zamfara State, Alhaji Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi, his political associates and supporters defected from the PDP to the ruling APC. The defection is likely to cause political realignments in the state, our correspondent reports.

Alhaji Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi was the executive governor of Zamfara State from 2007 to 2011. He was defeated by the then ANPP’s AbdulAziz Yari in a hotly contested election in 2011. He also re-contested in 2015 and lost again to Governor Yari.

Even before his defection, speculations were rife that Shinkafi was planning to leave the PDP for the ruling APC even though some of his supporters were denying the rumours.

However, after several meetings between the stake holders of both PDP and APC in Kano, Kaduna and Sokoto, Shinkafi formally declared his defection on Sunday. Those who decamped with him were his former and once powerful Chief of Staff Alhaji Musa Zubairu Nassarawa Mailayi, his running mate in the 2015 election, Alhaji Malami Aliyu Yandoto and a former Secretary to the State  Government, Alhaji Mamman Bawa.

During the declaration in Gusau, the state capital, Shinkafi identified the quest for rapid development of the state, support for President Muhammadu Buhari’s anti-graft war and the crisis rocking the PDP at the state and national levels as some of the reasons that prompted their decision to join the APC.

He asked all his supporters to go back to their respective wards and receive APC membership cards, adding that they defected on their own volition and there was no agreement on what position goes to who.

But two days after Shinkafi’s defection, the 14 PDP chairmen in all 14 local government areas of the state kicked against it.

 They dissociated themselves from the defection, saying Shinkafi was on his own and therefore decamped “alone”.

The leader of the PDP chairmen’s forum in  the local government areas, Alhaji Shuaibu Isah Mafara who also doubles as the PDP chairman in Talata Mafara Local Government Area, said they had no prior knowledge of Shinkafi’s defection.

Mafara, who spoke with our correspondent shortly after a stakeholders’ meeting at the residence of the state chairman of the party, Alhaji Hassan Muhammad Nasiha, said Shinkafi made the assertion that they were with him out of deceit.

“If it was true that we were all involved in the defection, why couldn’t the defection event record our presence? I can assure you that even those that attended the Sunday event were deceived because they were told to attend a mere party meeting,” he said.

Those that attended the stakeholders’ meeting included a former finance minister Alhaji Bashir Yugudu Gusau, a former chairman of the party Alhaji Ibrahim Mallaha Gusau, Alhaji Siddi Daki Takwas and Alhaji Nura Musa Gusau, among others.

With the defection of Shinkafi, political pundits in the state are foreseeing possible realignments in political structures in the state.

“There is bound to be changes in political calculations and permutations, especially within the fold of the ruling APC,” an observer said.

Some APC stalwarts, pundits observed, were not happy at Shinkafi’s defection despite his large political credibility. Much of their disappointment is hinged on the fact that Shinkafi might assert his political influence on the structure of the APC exco and some  political appointments.

“He might be given some seats in the exco membership of the APC and some of his followers might also get some political appointments even though he said there was no formal agreement on what position goes to who or something like that,” the observer said.

“However, within the party he left, the PDP, there is bound to be a very wide gap after his defection. Many people are still with the PDP in the state because of his presence there. Despite the fact that he lost elections in 2011 and 2015 his popularity is still felt across the state,” he added.

“To some of the chieftains of the PDP like Alhaji Bello Mutawalle Maradun and Alhaji Ibrahim Shehu Gusau, both former members of the House of Representatives, his defection could be a welcome development

“This may not be unconnected to their ambition to clinch the ticket of the party come 2019. You should remember that they vied for the ticket under the platform of the PDP but Shinkafi defeated them after he was strongly supported by the national headquarters of the party and the powers that be at that time. So his defection could pave way for them to assert their influence on the party in the state,” he said.

“However, his defection with a large chunk of followers and party loyalists could be a source of worry to them. But whatever the case may be his defection is a very big blow to the opposition PDP in the state, because the party has lost one of its men with a staunch support base, especially in cities like Gusau. This will definitely and seriously affect the party’s fortunes in future polls ,” the pundit added.

On the other hand, Daily Trust observed that Shinkafis’ defection is a political plus for former governor Senator Ahmad Sani Yarima who remains a force to reckon with in Zamfara politics.

Being the first executive governor in the state, he wields enormous political advantage owing to the fact that most of the political gladiators in the state whether in the ruling APC or opposition PDP were nurtured by him.

Being a political godfather in the state, he maintains his influence despite several attempts by his key opponents to clip his political wings. In fact, it is believed that victory is crowned on every contest that receives Yarima’s formal endorsement and blessing and at whatever level.

In the 2015 elections, the ruling APC in the state was able to seize one senate seat and four seats in the House of Representatives from the opposition PDP and retained its two seats, thus winning all the senate and seven House of Representative seats in the state.

In 2015, many PDP chieftains hoped Yarima’s senatorial ambitions would crash. This, according to their calculations, would spark the beginning of the end of his political influence and in return, seriously impact on Governor Yari’s re-election bid.

On May 29, 1999 former governor Ahmad Sani Yarima and his deputy at that time, Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi, were sworn in as first executive civilian governor and deputy governor of  Zamfara State.

All was well then between Yarima and Shinkafi, and they were re-elected under the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003.

At the expiration of their tenure in 2007, Yarima at that time anointed Shinkafi as his successor and supported him strongly, as such, he was able to defeat the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, a former  governor of the old Sokoto State, Mallam Yahaya Abdulkarim.

Yarima was the only governor who handed over power to his deputy in the country at that time, attracting praises from different political quarters.

On December 5, 2008, Shinkafi defected to the PDP and took along all the party leaders of the defunct ANPP, a development seen by many political pundits as the beginning of rivalry between the two hitherto close political friends.

Many political observers attributed, among other things, the failure of the PDP to win in 2011 to Shinkafi’s decision to bite the fingers that fed him.

On the other hand, the defunct ANPP led by  Ahmad Yarima  braced up to wrestle power from their perceived political enemies, Shinkafi and his allies.

A battle of supremacy over the bid to control the state ensued between Shinkafi and his former boss, Yarima, with each displaying political sagacity and might in a determination to win the battle. Plots and counter-plots became the order of the day between Yarima and Shinkafi.

At that time, Yarima saw this as a move by the PDP, the then ruling party, to eclipse his political strength and vowed to fiercely fight back.

In 2011, the  PDP’s Shinkafi was defeated by the Yarima-anointed  Abdulaziz Yari, a development many saw as Yarima’s sweet  revenge. With the development in 2011, Yarima was able to consolidate his political supremacy in the state, and with his victory in the 2015 polls, Yarima cruised  to the senate for the third time.

Now that the two rivals have reunited and are feathering the same political nest again, the question on the lips of many is; “What will be the fate of Shinkafi in the new face of Zamfara politics?” Time will tell!