Jonathan: Why 25 percent is a tall order in Katsina

President Goodluck Jonathan

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President Goodluck Jonathan’s bid to secure 25 percent of the votes in Katsina State would be a tall order due to some factors identified in this analysis. With less than a week to the presidential election, it is easy to predict what would be the outcome of the poll.
Being the home state of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, the mood in the state favours the APC while at the same time diminishing the prospects of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan.
With what many consider as the wind of change blowing, it is not difficult predicting that the presidential election in Katsina State is for the opposition to take.
Katsina, according to latest statistics from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has reached 95 percent in the distribution of the Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) with about 2,569,453 distributed. The state which is among the top five with highest number of voters seems to be a darling to presidential hopefuls in order  to secure numerical advantage in the elections.
In the 2011 election, the main opposition party in the state then, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) won during the presidential and National Assembly elections while the PDP won the gubernatorial election.
Some of the factors that worked for Buhari, then of the defunct CPC, have remained in the present dispensation, but other factors  have crept in that may further pave way for yet another  landslide victory for General Buhari.
Political observers say even those working for the president have never considered the possibility of defeating Buhari in his home state, but are only working to ensure that Jonathan secures at least 25 percent of the total votes in the state so as to mitigate the margin of loss as well as boost what he gets in the overall result.
Katsina, being the home state of Buhari, accords him an almost religious following as he is well respected and liked by a vast majority of the people there. In 2011 when he was the candidate of the defunct CPC, Katsina was among the states he won with a wide margin.
Another thing is that those working for President Jonathan have not been brave enough to do so openly for fear of going against what appears to be the popular wish of the people there.
Some of them who are leaders of the PDP have openly disassociated from the campaign and at the same time maintaining their membership of the party. Currently there is no identified outfit or structure campaigning for Jonathan in the state. Even the state chapter of the PDP is always silent when it comes to rallies or campaigns. The closest it came was a list of purported members of campaign team that was placed as adverts in few national dailies but immediately after it was made public some of the persons mentioned in the list openly rejected their membership of the committee.
Jonathan also had a bitter experience when he visited the state during his campaign rally. He was pelted and openly booed at the rally despite the fact that those that were allowed access to the venue of the rally where dully screened and selected only for them to turn around and chorus ‘Sai Buhari’ in his presence and in the presence of other dignitaries.
Religion and ethnicity will also greatly play a role in ensuring Jonathan fails to clinch the needed 25 percent votes. Most of the people are Hausa/Fulani and they believe that Jonathan does not like the North and the people usually back up such arguments with what they say is his deliberate failure to curtail the insurgency in the North East until it was election time.
The party’s gubernatorial primary also caused a lot of disaffection among PDP leaders in Katsina where some staunch members of the party who are close to the presidency were edged out and even after having petitioned the national organ of the party and the presidency, nothing was done about it. This has made most of them to stay away and show nonchalant attitude towards the success of the party.
The opposition party has never been more united than now in the state. The APC’s acceptance at places it didn’t field candidates during the last election seems so strong that it is clear that it will dislodge the PDP. Also, almost all the guber candidates, such as those of APGA, PDM and NCP seem to have fallen out with the PDP as they openly canvass support for Buhari at any given moment and preach against Jonathan’s candidacy.
The series of defection of personalities who command respect from the party followers will also negatively impact against the president getting the required votes.  
Disturbed by the fear of dismal outing in the state, Jonathan made a surprise visit to the palace of Emir of Daura, the birthplace of Buhari to solicit support of the emirate towards his bid.
The sudden visit was believed to have been orchestrated by his campaign team in a move to seek political relevance in the area dominated by APC supporters. Although Jonathan said his visit was a make up on an earlier one when he was on tour of the state during which he was unable to visit Daura because the emir was indisposed, it is seen as a visit that won’t make any difference or change the tides.
To show their disenchantment, immediately he left the palace mobs took to the streets with brooms and water sweeping and washing the road as a sign of protest over the visit. Similar action was meted to him during his presidential campaign tour to Katsina were he was pelted along some streets in the state capital.