Stakeholders and observers of events leading to the 2023 general elections are watching with baited breath how the endorsement of Mr Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party will affect the outcome of the election, Daily Trust on Sunday reports.
The 2023 presidency has widened the division across the country as stakeholders in the Nigerian project differed over where the coveted position should be zoned to.
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With the North, having enjoyed the perquisites for straight two uninterrupted terms, it is naturally fair for the position to go southwards in line with the federal character principle which the country subscribes to.
This is however the position of many Southern leaders represented by the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum, SMBLF, comprising four regional groups namely the Pan-Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere; the Middle Belt Forum (MBF); the Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) and Ohanaeze Ndigbo.
It would be recalled that after a meeting in Abuja in March, SMBLF called “on all lovers of peace and equity in Nigeria, particularly our people of Southern Nigeria and Middle Belt region to reject any political party that fails to zone its presidential ticket to the South.”
It further cautioned “political stakeholders from Southern Nigeria against aspirations or actions that would compromise the shared resolve of our people.”
Their position was strongly supported by their governors under the aegis of Southern Governors’ Forum who at several fora insisted that the presidency must be zoned to the South.
But while their position was clear and unambiguous, it never resonated with political parties and as observers say, the first setback to the agitation was the failure of political parties to agree on a zoning formula prior to the conduct of their party primaries.
All the political parties conducted their primaries and the major ones – the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – did not adopt any zoning formula which made the contest a free-for-all.
Not until the last minute when the northern governors expressed their backing for power shift to the South before the conduct of APC presidential primaries, the party did not zone the position and this was why aspirants from the North also indicated interest in the position.
For PDP, the presidency was thrown open as well and aspirants from both the South and the North joined the fray until the ticket fell on Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who is now the presidential candidate of the party.
Analysts say what has prevailed so far is party loyalty and not the position of the southern leaders or the southern governors since none of the parties publicly adopted any zoning formula.
Daily Trust on Sunday, however, learnt that this is now a major headache for the southern leaders who are presently in a fix over who among the candidates to back in the forthcoming elections.
Sources who spoke with our correspondent insist that despite the position of the Southern and Middle Belt leaders that the presidency must be zoned to the South, there are other leaders who are indifferent about the zone that would produce the next president as they are influenced one way or the other by party politics though their sympathy is for some other parties.
Another factor that also contributed to the failure of zoning, according to pundits, is the failure of the southern leaders to micro-zone the position. Our correspondent learnt that majority of the southern leaders are disposed to the zoning of the presidency to the South East which has not had a shot at the presidency with many of their leaders saying the cries of marginalisation would naturally fade away if the presidency of the country was zoned to the region.
But while the PDP ticket went to the North East, APC’s ticket was ceded to the South-West and precisely Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu clinched it.
As it stands, analysts say the much hyped Igbo presidency may have hit the rocks ahead of the 2023 presidential election and the calculation by the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders for a candidate of South East extraction has been distorted.
But the emergence of Obi is said to have changed the calculation as he currently enjoys the support and endorsement of SMBLF members who have professed their support for Igbo presidency.
Afenifere leader, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, has made a case for Igbo presidency. The Middle Belt Forum President, Dr Bitrus Pogu, has also backed an Igbo president ditto Chief Edwin Clark, leader of PANDEF; all in solidarity with Ohanaeze Ndigbo.
Chief Clark had severally also called on other ethnic nationalities to support Ndigbo to produce the next president of Nigeria.
“When I say I want a president of Nigeria of Igbo extraction, I do not mean someone from Delta or Rivers State or anywhere else. I mean a pure southeast Igbo president. My preferred choice is Igbo…,” the elder statesman had said.
Though Obi enjoys massive support among the youth population, there have been widespread doubts about the extent to which he can go and withstand the war chests of the APC and PDP in terms of structure, national spread and the grassroots support which the two dominant parties have relied upon over time.
Despite Obi’s emergence, some leaders of the regional groups are said to be of the opinion that since zoning was jettisoned by APC and PDP, the right thing is to back whoever they think would take Nigeria out of the woods.
Several sources that spoke to our correspondent in confidence said the avowed support and endorsement of Obi is not final as there are discordant tunes fuelled largely by party affiliations than ethnic alliances.
The Asiwaju Tinubu factor, sources said, can never be wished away in all of this and there are fears Obi’s endorsement could be a blessing in disguise for the former Lagos State governor described as a master strategist by his supporters and admirers as he continues to explore possible alliances ahead of the elections.
With the South-West almost fully in his kitty and the support of the North, Tinubu sees himself as the candidate to beat among the other contenders.
Besides, some southern leaders are said to be in a fix over whether to back Tinubu or Obi but Tinubu supporters say in terms of experience, the contact and the ability to rally people, the Jagaban of Borgu stands tall.
It would be recalled that there was anxiety recently over the statement issued by the SMBLF condemning the decision of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State to accept his nomination as running mate to the PDP presidential candidate.
In a strongly worded statement after its meeting, the SMBLF described Okowa’s action as betrayal of the highest order and declared him persona non grata.
They said, “It is unspeakable and quite disappointing that Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, who is currently Chairman of the South-South Governors’ Forum, and a native of Owa-Alero in Ika North-East Local Government Area (one of the Igbo-speaking areas) of Delta State, would exhibit such barefaced unreliability.”
The statement was endorsed by Chief (Dr) Edwin Clark (PANDEF); Chief Ayo Adebanjo (Afenifere); Dr Bitrus Pogu (Middle Belt Forum) and Ambassador (Prof.) George Obiozor (Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide).
Okowa, however, refused to join issues with the regional leaders but insisted that the decision of his party is supreme.
“I want to respect our leaders, I believe that they have their opinions, and I also believe that they are well-meaning leaders.
“So, I won’t join issues with them. But the important thing is that I belong to a political party and I was part of the decisions of that political party, and we did agree that the best pathway to rescue this nation was to throw the presidential race open in our party.”
Speaking with our correspondent, a former National Secretary PDP Chief Ebenezer Babatope, insisted that the PDP candidate would win the 2023 election.
In a chat with Daily Trust on Sunday, Babatope said political parties’ strength and not ethnicity would determine the outcome of the next election.
He said, “In the case of the PDP, our last president was from the South and that was Jonathan.
“So the PDP could pick their candidate from anywhere. Okowa is free to be nominated by the party and once the party nominates him, it becomes a party’s decision and the party is supreme. So people should not vilify him. I don’t see any betrayal there.
“As a party, PDP shall go into the contest with an open mind, with the belief that we want to win. By the grace of God, the PDP will win.”
Also speaking with our correspondent, a former PDP chairman in Lagos, Capt. Tunji Shele, urged the Southern and Middle Belt leaders to take a backseat and pray for the emergence of the best among the candidates.
He said, “They are leaders and elders. We give them that respect and honour but I expect them to be conversant with the reality of our time. They should realise that it is the wish of everybody that governance should change from North to South. That is the belief of an average Nigerian or a concerned Nigerian.
“But politics is not mathematics. It is not arithmetic. It is a very complex game. Unfortunately the parties didn’t have enough time to plan ahead for this. Many people have bought form to contest the presidential ticket especially in PDP. So to reverse that trend was difficult. A lot of meetings took place.
“But they were being careful, that was why they threw the ticket open and gave everybody a fair chance to participate and that is democracy for you,” he said.
But as 2023 approaches, observers, stakeholders and political pundits continue to read the lips of not only the Southern and Middle Belt leaders but the Northern elders who would also come out with their positions in no distant time.
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