If not for last minute politicking, Alhaji Aminu Waziri Tambuwal (AWT) would have been the Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party in 2019. Hours leading to the 2018 convention in Port Harcourt, it was obvious that the 10th Speaker of the House of Representatives, who enjoyed the backing of the host governor, Nyesome Wike, was on his way to challenge President Muhammadu Buhari in the 2019 elections.
Tambuwal was one of the 12 candidates including three North West who contested the PDP presidential nomination in the primary conducted in the city of Port Harcourt on October 6, 2018.
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Tambuwal was widely expected to win going by political permutations around his candidacy. A number of factors including his young age among the contestants, political experience, his untainted records from corruption indictment boosted his chances going into the primary.
However, all that changed within the twinkle of an eye and at the end of the exercise, Tambuwal placed second position with 693 delegate votes behind Atiku who won with 1,532 votes. Bukola Saraki scored 317 and Rabiu Kwankwaso 158 votes.
Tambuwal returned to Sokoto to pick his governorship ticket for a second term, where he defeated his former deputy and candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Ahmad Aliyu by 342 votes in the main election.
Almost four years later, Tambuwal is back in the trenches, seeking the presidential ticket of the main opposition PDP but there are hurdles for the 56-year-old lawyer to cross if he must be successful this time.
Region and religion: The discourse around rotational presidency cannot be wished away by Tambuwal and his supporters, especially as governors and major stakeholders from Southern Nigeria have maintained that the region should produce the next president after Muhammadu Buhari. They hinged their argument on fairness, justice and equity.
Tambuwal is from the North West as President Buhari, who will be rounding off his eight years reign in 2023. The Sokoto state governor would need to convince other regions that the North West should produce the president again.
Related to this is the issue of religion. The Christian Association of Nigeria, (CAN) and the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria (PFN), have declared that a Christian should be supported to be the president in 2023.
The President of PFN, Bishop Francis Wale Oke, recently said: “We do not want another Muslim president come 2023. We don’t want it. It is not right. A Muslim president has governed for 8 years, the church gave him support. We prayed and we do not regret”.
Although, Islamic group, the Muslim Rights Concern, MURIC, said a Muslim must be returned as president in 2023. It, however, favours a Muslim from Southern Nigeria. The group went further to list eight Yoruba Muslims “competent” to lead the country.
Tambuwal is a Muslim but from the North.
However, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, has maintained that he wouldn’t respect the decision of the Southern governors.
“I have made my position very clear on that issue – that when the southern governors met and made that position, northern governors also met in Kaduna and made their position. I am a governor from the North, so I will not be bound by the position of the southern governors on their own platform,” he said in a recent interview.
Southern delegates: The major backers of Tambuwal’s presidential bid in 2018 were Southern governors, especially Governor Wike of River state and former Ekiti state governor Ayodele Fayose. Southern governors have declared that the next president should come from the region. Wike has been very vocal, insisting that he stands with the decision of the Southern Governors’ Forum. The governors control the delegates. It will be difficult for Tambuwal to win the PDP ticket without the support of the delegates from the South.
The choice of Vice President: Soliciting the backing of the governors from the South will create another hurdle for Tambuwal: the choice of a Vice Presidential candidate, if he wins the primary. Atiku was able to beat the governors to the game in 2018 by quickly announcing Peter Obi before any commitment. This was easy for Atiku to do because he didn’t get their support until the last-minute intervention of ‘the generals’. However, if Tambuwal will get the Southern governors in his party to relinquish their desire to produce the president, he will have to negotiate the choice of the Vice President. It is no secret that the governors in the region, who are completing their second term in office, are planning for their next political move. Who will be Tambuwal’s choice among them?
Playing Dirty: Politics in Nigeria is said to be a dirty game and there are fears among top leaders in the PDP that Tambuwal cannot play dirty. In the build up to the 2018 PDP presidential primary, Tambuwal was criticised for failing to ‘attack’ President Buhari throughout his campaign. While other aspirants like Atiku, Saraki and Kwankwaso were vocal in their criticism of the Buhari-led administration, Tambuwal was very measured in his words.
It was learnt that this was one of the reasons why Atiku was preferred in 2018 by the ‘generals’ in the PDP.
“Tambuwal wants to play smart and safe. He is not ready to put everything into the fight. You can do that as the candidate of the ruling party but for the opposition, you need someone that can amplify the undoing of the government in power. We all saw what APC did to Jonathan (Goodluck) in the build-up to 2015 elections, he was called names, blamed for what he did not do and the public was moved against him,” a chieftain of the PDP disclosed.
The chieftain of the party who does not want his name in print, said the PDP would need a presidential candidate who is ready to amplify the ills of the APC government.
“More than 7 years after APC came to the saddle of leadership in this country, they still blame PDP for all the wrongs. Can you imagine that? So, we need a candidate who is ready to go toe to toe with them, expose their wrongs and get the public to see them for who they are,” he added.
Political networking/War chest: Tambuwal is not a greenhorn in the political space but can he boast of the same political network within and outside PDP as Alhaji Atiku Abubakar? In every political party, there are kingmakers, who may not necessarily vote during the convention but can influence the outcome. Most presidential aspirants always visit these principal characters to solicit their blessings. In the PDP, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former military Head of state, Ibrahim Babangida, Former Chief of Army Staff, Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma and former National Security Adviser, Aliyu Gusau are among ‘the generals’ who have huge influence on the party.
Analysts believed that the failure of Tambuwal to secure their full backing caused him the presidential ticket of the party in 2018. The Sokoto governor attested to this in a recent exclusive interview with Daily Trust.
“It was all about politics, power-broking, consultations and networking. There were movements and personalities who felt they should support Atiku Abubakar to be the candidate of the party, and they were able to convince some other leaders; so it happened and I accepted the outcome,” he said when asked about his inability to pick the ticket in 2018.
What has Tambuwal done since 2018 to be the favourite of the powerbrokers in the party? Has he been able to convince them that he stands a better chance of winning the 2023 elections?
Analysts also opined that Tambuwal cannot match the economic power of Alhaji Atiku in the PDP or Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the APC if he secures the ticket. Contesting an election as an opposition candidate requires good financial backing. Despite the campaigns by Civil Society Organizations, vote-buying has dominated elections in Nigeria. This act is helped by the high level of poverty and illiteracy in the land which makes some voters sell their votes for as low as N500.
Insecurity: Insecurity remains one of the major challenges in the country. Terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and communal clashes have compounded the security situation in the country.
While most security institutions are under the control of the Federal Government, critics are of the opinion that Sokoto has witnessed increased attacks in recent times. It is argued that Tambuwal has not marshalled enough leadership to curtail some of the attacks in the state.
A part of the state is said to be under the control of bandits, who collect taxes from the people.
Tambuwal had an excellent result as the Speaker of the House of Representatives but questions would be asked on what he has done with the mandate given to him in Sokoto since 2015.
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