On the surface of it all the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is on a roll. The party holds the reins of power which enables it to determine things in its favour. In the past few years it has been a net gainer of political figures from its main rival the PDP, most prominent and latest of which is the Governor of Ebonyi State, Umahi. There are strong rumours and indications that in the coming months, the APC will receive more governors, senators and others into its fold.
Presently the APC is in the process of revalidating the membership of the party across the country. This has received enthusiastic response and compliance across the board from President Buhari to the lowliest member of the party. In the process, new members in their droves are signing up to join the party.
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If one looks beyond the surface, however, not everything is well within the party presently, and going forward, the now visible cracks within the party are bound to widen irredeemably.
Take the ongoing revalidation exercise for example; it has been justified as a renewal exercise to enable the party update the status of its membership. But there are legal lacunae about the exercise which can be challenged in court. If the party deems it necessary to embark on the exercise for the reasons given it follows then that all its functionaries as well as persons elected under it must resign their positions because it is assumed that they are no longer members of the party.
But of course as the ruling party the APC can expect to get away with this fundamental legal and political infraction. If, however, the issue is challenged vigorously in court, it will open up a Pandora’s Box that may likely shake the party to its very foundation.
What is even more poignant about the APC’s revalidation exercise is that it is being done to surreptitiously checkmate the influence of and ultimately the aspirations of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu to clinch party’s presidential ticket in the run up to the 2023 elections.
This is a journey that started with the removal of Adam Oshiomhole, a Tinubu loyalist, as chairman of the party. The ongoing revalidation exercise is the next stop in that journey which aims to remove all Tinubu loyalists within the party. By the time the party’s convenes to elect new officers to run its affairs, Tinubu’s influence in the party would have been completely whittled down denying him the chance to clinch his ultimate ambition.
From all indications, Tinubu is aware of these developments and the reasons behind them. But like the consummate political player he is, he has chosen not to reveal his counter strategies in order not to give his traducers in the party the opportunity to nail him at this early stage of the plan to checkmate him. But for sure he will strike back at the time that will make a telling impact on the party.
What is Tinubu likely to do to get back at APC for checkmating him and how will this impact on the fortunes of the party?
As everyone knows, APC is a Buhari purpose vehicle which was put together to enable him win the presidency in 2015 after three previous unsuccessful attempts. And of all the grandees in the party who made this possible, Tinubu stands head and shoulder. He will expect as reward from the party, a chance to succeed President Buhari in 2023 when the president finally finishes his mandatory two terms. Tinubu knows and is confident that should the APC decide to zone its presidential ticket to the southern part of the country, he stands in a pole position to clinch the ticket and possibly the 2023 election.
Some well-placed grandees in the party, however, think differently and would not have Tinubu on the party’s presidential ticket. Hence, all this shadow boxing currently going on within the APC. And from the confident way they have been going about the stop-Tinubu-at-all-cost manoeuvres; they most likely have the nod and wink of the president himself.
Tinubu will definitely not take this snub lying low and in this regard he will have a range of options to consider.
He will likely pull out of the party with his supporters which will cause a political tsunami of sorts which will shake down the APC no doubt. He may go on to link up with other dissatisfied members of the party as well as those from the opposition PDP to form a third political party in the country.
As a man of considerable means and wide political following, Tinubu’s travails is likely to raise the political temperature of Nigeria to June 12 proportions. The southern based media whether by his prompting or not will pick up his fight and run with it. His supporters both low and high will go on overdrive with tendentious provocative statements about Nigeria which will take us to the brink of yet another serious political crisis. With the country’s ever fragile fault lines presently under serious strain and likely to continue to ratchet up in the coming months, the atmosphere will be poisonous.
The prognosis is that there will be realignment of political forces moving in opposing directions. There will also likely to be a third political party made up of elements from both APC and PDP, who cannot find accommodation in the two parties, as well as new entrants.
It is likely that the new political party will be a formidable one which will upset the political calculations of both the APC and PDP. The APC, in particular, using its control of the power apparatus, will likely move to block the new party in many ways. But this will precipitate a crisis with several legal and political challenges against subterranean attempts to block the new party.
All this points to a possible political stalemate in Nigeria’s political firmament in the run up to the 2023 elections. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will come under serious pressure to either disqualify the new party entirely or its candidates.
In the charged, acidic atmosphere of the 2023 run, there is all likelihood of a postponement of the elections which will add to the uncertainty of not just the elections but the future of the country. (Concluded)
