For the majority of citizens who somehow survive below the international poverty line, 2022 is already in full swing. As the Buhari administration winds down its affairs, a cursory look at the emotions Nigerians will express this year is revealing. Primaries will be held to “elect” party flag-bearers for the presidential election and other assorted less important but none the powerful positions such as governors and members of the legislature at both state and national levels.
Undoubtedly there will be plenty of politicking, unfulfilled expectations, lamentations, litigations, anticipations and vilifications. As far as expectations go, although the president’s supporters and praise singers claim he has done fantastically well, the statistics and grim realities on ground suggest otherwise.
Civil society organizations have faulted the minister of Information’s claim that the nation has made “tremendous progress” under this administration. While his supporters claim that he will be appreciated and missed when he leaves office, President Buhari’s critics claim they are looking forward to missing him and appreciating him when he has gone! In truth Nigerians should be allowed to decide the scorecard for the president after he has left office, not his acolytes while he is still in office.
Despite the hullabaloo over infrastructural development, few Nigerians can state emphatically that they are better off today than they were back in 2015. Official claims to have defeated insurgents have proved hollow as President Buhari’s own home state of Katsina is now such a hot-bed of uncontrolled murderous violence that the state governor has urged defenceless citizens to arm themselves and secure their lives! There is little time left for this administration to make amends, but there are those who still believe that it’s out of place to refer to President Buhari’s ability to bequeath a legacy to the nation that citizens would be proud of as a tall order.
Most Nigerians like Alhaji Mumakai Unagha a former presidential aspirant under the All Progressives Congress (APC) don’t expect anything new in 2022. As far as they are concerned, after seven years in office the nation is worse off than before and there is no magic which can be performed to turn the fortunes of the nation around before their expiry date. Alhaji Unagha believes expectations should be “realistically narrowed to requisitioning our dear president to now set the stage for his imminent departure”. With regard to lamentations in 2022, quite naturally those who will eventually lose out in their quest for political office will mourn their fate, especially taking into account the outrageous cost of application forms sold by political parties. The only consolation for the majority of Nigerians is that it will be the rich who cry because salary earners and “common” Nigerians cannot afford the cost of contesting elections.
The lamentations of losers in the political realm will join the lamentations of widows of police officers and soldiers killed on national duty who have been abandoned to penury, together with the lamentations of victims of unrestrained banditry, insurgency and terror in an increasing cacophony. With regards to vilification, denigrating and disparaging political opponents is now part and parcel of Nigerian electioneering which has become less about aspirants presenting manifestos or promises which they actually intend to adhere to, and more about casting aspersions on the character of opponents. As such the electorate can rest assured that they would have heard the worst about whoever eventually wins nomination to various political offices. In local parlance “the anus of the fowl is about to be exposed”. Many of such vilifications will metamorphose into litigation.
There is no doubt that in 2022 our courts will be choked up with political cases. Indeed the quite extraordinary excuse President Buhari gave for not assenting to the Electoral Act was that direct primaries would be expensive and result in numerous litigations. The truth is that Nigerian politicians are firmly committed to rigging elections at all levels, and all primaries are bound to attract litigation. The only reason direct primaries would attract more litigation is because there would be more people who have locus to file cases! Serial litigation is a characteristic of elections in Nigeria. Evidently quite content with the inefficient, inconvenient, authorities have chosen to throw the baby of improved electoral processes out with the bath water of electoral reform.
In terms of anticipation, Nigerians are looking forward with trepidation to a predicted economic collapse consequent upon increasing fuel pump prices. Each time this administration has increased fuel price they claim it’s a result of deregulation and subsidy removal. It is on record that when in opposition President Buhari stated categorically that subsidy was a fraud and there was no such thing. Having appointed himself Petroleum Minister for the past six years and presided over the failure to revive the nation’s refineries he has been paying the previously condemned subsidy which facilitates fleecing the petroleum ministry.
The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has threatened strike in response to any attempt to increase fuel prices, but no one realistically believes a strike will serve any purpose. The anticipated outcome of any strike, apart from increasing the suffering of low income earners, is that price will be increased to a (previously agreed) rate lower than that being advertised. All said and done perhaps the real problem with 2022 is that Nigerians are not convinced it will be a year of pleasant surprises.
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