Politics is no arithmetic. That is why pollsters and strategists keep shifting the aces until the ballots are counted. That scientific permutation works quite well in developed democracies. In America, for instance, candidates place much premium on exit polls when making permutations on likely winners of electoral contests. In Nigeria, politicians often rely on a mixture of manipulation, thuggery and influence of money.
Bookmakers are at work as Nigerians prepare to choose new leaders from across 91 registered political parties on February 16 and March 2. Indeed, a few states such as Ogun, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi and Kaduna are set for titanic battles between emergent forces and ‘established’ politicians. Not so for Kwara State where the voters are determined to dictate the direction of power flow.
The wind of change is pregnant. Kwarans are yearning for a new order and they are prepared to put their ballot where their heart directs them. For those who refuse to be sold on sentiments and pre-conceived notions of political hegemony, the odds are in favour of progressivism and people-oriented politics as depicted by President Muhammadu Buhari.
Deep in the hearts of Kwarans, the era of political dictation is over. Citizens, high and low are yearning for a leader; a father-figure who listens, who is accessible, humble, compassionate and altruistic. Across the country such leaders are few. But, with nostalgia, many remember the late Oloye Olusola Saraki, one time senate leader and perhaps the most consummate politician Kwara ever had.
Kwara today is singing the dirge of the Saraki political dynasty. The message is simple: O to ge, enough is enough. Let’s have a new political leader. For those not directly involved, this is not about hatred or bad belle. It is simply time for change. What are the indices for change and power shift, one may ask?
While he held sway in Kwara, Oloye Saraki played politics with deep deftness. Oloye Saraki’s son, Bukola has long jettisoned the political skills inherited from his father. For sure, Kwarans have seen beyond the façade of Omo Oloye. Bukola simply lacks the qualities and political dexterity of his father.
Saraki’s real political demolition came during the bye election for the Ekiti/Irepodun/Isin and Oke ero Federal Constituency. Saraki’s candidate in PDP lost woefully, to signpost his final rejection by Kwarans. In Kwara South where Governor Ahmed belongs, the bye election to the federal constituency mentioned above must be seen as an absolute rejection of Saraki and a damning testimonial on the lackluster performance of Ahmed. In Kwara North, the PDP campaign team is losing ground. This is a zone that holds so much potential for wealth creation and employment generation through agriculture and solid minerals deposits. The only semblance of development is the Shonga Farm project now completely privatized. The frustration of Kwara North is more deep seated, beyond economic deprivation. Since 1999- twenty years at a stretch- the zone has not produced a Governor. Bukola Saraki had promised that after eight years of incumbent governor, the mantle will shift to the zone. That was a promise never kept. The zone has been asked to wait for another eight years, possibly. Will the people of Kwara North bite the bullet once more? It is unthinkable that Saraki will again get away with his political subterfuge.
In Kwara Central, where the battle will be between Saraki and the blue-blood Ilorin indigenes, the outcome of the coming elections will finally give a face to the o to ge the movement. In the senatorial election, Dr. Ibrahim Oloriegbe is set to give Bukola Saraki a bloody nose by taking the Senate seat. But the February 16 election has also stacked the odds in favour of President Buhari and the APC.
The APC candidate, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, prides himself as an “original” Ilorin man, who had his formative education in the city, attending the Demonstration School, in MagajinGeri, Ilorin. Despite his success in the business world, he disagrees that he was a silver spoon child. He has identified poverty and youth unemployment as two evils plaguing Kwara.
Specifically, the APC candidate has promised to pursue a six-point agenda anchored on modernised agriculture, quality education and massive infrastructure, employment for the youth as well as empowerment for the women. He also pledges to boost the morale of workers through prompt payment of wages, allowances and requisite training.
“My vision is to see a state where we are no longer dependent on statutory allocations from Abuja, where we use our enterprise to generate enough funds to run the state, where we reduce unemployment, where our women have free maternal care, where our women are empowered to achieve what they want to do. Where students have a good environment to study and can pursue what they want with government assistance either through scholarship or free education,” he said.
His determination must have been informed by the fact that many Kwarans feel that state resources have not been prudently managed. “Between January 2011 and August 2018, the Kwara State government has received roughly N300bn in federal allocations. In the same period, the 16 local governments have received more than N500bn. This means that this state has received an average of N40bn annually from the federal accounts while the local councils have taken over N27bn annually between 2011 and 2017. Yet Kwara has one of the worst social infrastructures in this country,” said Abdulrazaq.
He has also set his vision on modernizing agriculture by tapping into the state’s huge potentials. “Kwara has a comparative advantage in agriculture. But our farming communities don’t have facilities that will encourage investment. So we will concentrate, basically, on building infrastructure such as roads, health facilities, schools and opening up our communities to the world through stable electricity and internet connectivity,” he noted.
While asked to sum up his strategy for enthroning good governance, Abdulrazaq said: “Basically, Kwara requires urgent dismantling of the current political mercantilism which stifles development, encourages laziness and thuggery and dehumanises our people. This will free up resources to serve the people.”
Kareem wrote from PROEDGE Limited 9A, Nnewi Street, Area 2, Garki, Abuja.
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