2014 flood outlook: Flooding eminent in over 20 states

John Ayoade Shamonde, Director General of Nigeria Hydrological Service Agency (NIHSA), said at the public presentation of the outlook that those living in areas regarded as high risk areas needed to be on alert and ready for relocation anytime they were advised to do so.
Shamonde noted that the expected flood outlook for this year using two models was classified into high, moderate and low flood risk areas and conducted using local governments.  
He said: “We classified it into local government because it is well defined that way. Where ever we see a spot showing that there is going to be flood, that LGA is shaded and that is what we have presented. It is easier that way instead of doing it with state. It is better to use the 774 LGAs in Nigeria to come out with a better pictorial outlook that we presented today.”
He observed that the flood for this year will not be heavier than that of 2012, adding:  “We give the general outlook for the year and begin to monitor it so that our information will still have to be coming out on a regular basis.”
The coastal areas that are expected to experience coastal flooding due to rise in sea level and tidal surge include Bayelsa, Delta, Ondo and Lagos, while parts of Sokoto, Benue, Bauchi, Jigawa, Zamfara, Nasarawa and Yobe states were classified as inland high flood risks areas.
The outlook, according to the agency, was based on 2014 Nigerian Metrological Agency seasonal rainfall prediction and historical records of hydrological stations located across the country.
“In order to improve on the 65 per cent success recorded in the 2013 flood outlook for Nigeria, we introduced two models in preparing the 2014 outlook. These include geospatial stream flow model and soil and water assessment tool and the 2014 NIMET rainfall prediction,” the agency added.
The expected inflows in the country for the period of 2014 will be lower than that of 2012 and 2013. Peak flow in 2014 is expected to be 63 per cent of what was observed in 2012.
Speaking at the occasion, Minister of Water Resources Sarah Reng Ochekpe, noted that around one billion people in the world live and have their socio- economic activities on vulnerable flood plains and with similar situation in Nigeria, stressing the need to incorporate disaster reduction principles in water resource management.
She said: “It will reverse all the degradation trends in the use of surface and underground water resource and drainage land thereby preventing flood hazards which could be achieve by increasing multi- disciplinary approaches of community participation in the use of the resources that are based on management plan.”
She was of the opinion that flood management, through investment and redirection of resources, offered significant economic benefits and potentially reduces risks and hazards and eventually, loss of life.
Daily Trust recalled that in 2012, 27 states across the country were ravaged by flood, leading to 400 deaths while a total of 2 million Nigerians were displaced.
According to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the total lost associated with the 2012 flood was N2.9 trillion.
The federal government intervened by setting up the Presidential Committee on Flood Relief and Rehabilitation headed by Business mogul Aliko Dangote.
The Dangote-led committee raised over N11 billion but it was yet to disburse to victims of the flood many of whom have gone backto their houses in states predicted to experience flood this year.